Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1040 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2000

POTENT SHRTWV/UPR CENTER MOVING ACROSS OH ATTM IS PROGGED TO MOVE
SEWD ACROSS WRN PA THIS AFTN. WITH CURRENT PSN OF SHRTWV TROF
AXIS...MUCH OF THE BEST LIFTING SHOULD ALREADY BE TO THE EAST OF
CNTRL PA. THIS IS EVIDENT IN REGIONAL RADAR WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
OVER WV/WRN MD AND LITTLE MORE THAN SCT SHOWERS OVER WRN PA. DO
EXPECT THIS AREA TO FILL IN SOMEWHAT THIS AFTN BUT HOW MUCH PCPN
FILLS BACK IN IS THE FCST PROBLEM FOR THIS AFTN.

THICKER CLOUD COVER OVER PA AND LARGE SWATH OF DEWPOINTS BELOW 60F
OVER MOST OF CWA WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS. SO FOCUS OF RAIN WILL BE
OVER SRN HALF OF CWA AS UPR LOW MOVES SE ACROSS THE REGION.

PBZ SOUNDING SHOWING SFC TO MID LEVEL BACKING INDICATING WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. THIS MAY BE A TEMPORARY SURGE BEFORE MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL
WITH THE UPR CENTER PASSAGE...BUT NEVER THE LESS IT WILL HELP TO
DETRACT FROM INSTABILITY EARLY ON.

WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN OVER SRN TIER BREAKOUTS AS TRACK OF
UPPER LOW COULD ALLOW SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SLOW MOVING
CELLS. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITING FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE...LATEST HPC
QPFERD ALSO BACKING OFF ON FF POTENTIAL FOR PA AND 3HR FFG VALUES IN
THE 3 TO 4 INCH RANGE OVER SW PA...AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT FF THREAT
IN OUR CWA ATTM.

NO CHANGES BEYOND FIRST PD.

.CTP...NONE.

G.ARTNER