Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2000

POTENT COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY A STRONG...DIGGING UPPER SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICH AT MID AFTERNOON...AND  WILL CARRY
STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION EAST ACROSS MUCH OF PENN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

AS MENTIONED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE...12Z ETA GRID POINT PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE
SCENT COUNTIES OF PENN ALONG WITH THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 20Z AND
01Z. AFTERWARD...CAPES FALL OFF ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN LESS INTENSE...
BUT STILL STRONG MULTICELL STORMS IN SHORT LINES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.

AS MID/UPR WINDS SLACKEN OFF LATER TNGT AND SATURDAY...AND DEEP UPR
TROUGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE STATE...SLOW MOVING (BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON) SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BASIN AVG QPF FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...TO BETWEEN 0.5
AND 1.0" ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF OUR CWFA. RIGHT NOW...3-6 HR FFG
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE THESE VALUES...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SERN
AND SRN TIER ZONES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING...SLOWLY NE MOVING
CONVECTION SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

WITH LIGHT WINDS...PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE...AND SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TNGT AND SAT NIGHT...FOG WILL BECOME A SIGNIF WEATHER
FACTOR.

WILL BE OPTIMISTIC...ATLEAST WITH RESPECT TO HIGH TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND SALVAGE AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE L/M 70S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SE COUNTIES. ATLEAST SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS SHOULD PREVENT HI TEMPS FROM REMAINING IN THE 60S IN THESE
AREAS.

.CTP...NONE.

LAMBERT/SEILHAMER

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-142200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1140 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2000

...THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
TRIGGER NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AROUND OR OVER 60 MPH...OR
LARGE HAIL.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE. THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE STEADILY
SOUTHEASTWARD AND AFFECT THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE DURING THE
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.

THROUGHOUT THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM...OR MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN MANY AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. HOWEVER...THE RISK
OF STRONG WINDS OR LARGE HAIL WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.

LAMBERT

PAZ017-024-025-033-034-150200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
405 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2000

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE
LAUREL MOUNTAINS...

A LONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FLARED UP ALONG A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.  THEREFORE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR A PART OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL BE VALID THROUGH
10 PM.  THE WATCH COVERS THE FOLLOWING 5 COUNTIES IN THE LAUREL
MOUNTAIN REGION:

BLAIR...BEDFORD...CAMBRIA...CLEARFIELD AND SOMERSET COUNTIES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IF
YOU ARE IN OR CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA...KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA...AND TAKE COVER SHOULD THREATENING
WEATHER APPROACH OR A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

LISTEN TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

DANGELO