Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
925 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2000

TSRA FROM WARREN COUNTY BACK TO BUTLER COUNTY MOVG NE WILL MISS
AREAS S AND E OF THE MTNS. THERE IS A LINE OF SPKLS FROM ELK COUNTY
DOWN TO SOMERSET COUNTY THAT IS ALSO MOVG NE. DRIER DEWPTS OVR THE
ALLEGHENIES DESPITE THESE SPKLS THEN DEWPTS RISE AGAIN OVR THE
HEADWATERS TO THE OH VAL. PRES RISES AND DRIER DEWPTS AGAIN IN THE
CMH AREA DESPITE THE CONTINUING SW WIND INDICATE FROPA HAS OCCURRED
THERE. SO FRONT AT 12Z APPRS TO BE JUST TO W OF CLE THRU CMH TO HTS.
FRONT APPRS TO BE MOVG E ABOUT 30 KTS. PURE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE
FRONT FROM W WARREN COUNTY TO LBE AROUND 16Z AND TO IPT TO HGR BY
20Z.

MESO ETA SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF 85H WINDS ARRIVING JUST W OF FROPA
BY 21Z. THIS WILL LIKELY FIRE SOME DECENT CONVECTION FROM MID AFTN
INTO THE EVE ALG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES E. BY 00Z ON THE 11TH THE
FRONT IS OVR NJ AND MOVG AWAY. SO OUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE
FROM 18-22Z AND ALL OF IT E OF THE ALLEGHENIES UNLESS A FEW OF THE
STORMS MOVG ACRS THE NW THIS AM BECOME SVR.

BASED ON WHAT HAPPENNED OVNT IT APPRS OUR VIL OF THE DAY WOULD BE
AROUND 40. STRMS OVR THE NW ARE BETWEEN 30 AND 40 NOW. THEY SHUD
DIMINISH DURG THE NEXT FEW HRS. SWODY1 HAS SLITE RISK OVR OUR ENTIRE
CWA AND STATEMENT BEING ISSUED ATTM.

.CTP...NONE.

HEAD

PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-101900-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
916 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2000

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS
THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ANID ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED LATER TODAY.

.END/ FITZGERALD