Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2000

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT STILL JUST FLIRTING WITH THE CTP
FA EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN WARREN
AND MCKEAN COS EARLIER...WITH MORE ACTIVITY NOW OVER ERIE/CRAWFORD
COS.

WHAT SEEMED EARLIER TO LOOK LIKE A VERY PROMISING SEVERE WEATHER DAY
FOR CENTRAL PA LOOKS SOMEWHAT LESS SO NOW. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES
ARE STILL FAIRLY UNSTABLE...WITH CAPES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE...WIND
FIELDS LOOK LESS RESPECTABLE. BY 18Z...WHEN SURFACE FRONT IS BEARING
DOWN ON THE REGION...LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST. IN ADDITION...850 WIND SPEEDS BY 18Z
WILL HAVE DROPPED TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH STILL RESPECTABLE...
NOT NEARLY THE 40-50 KT WINDS THAT ARE/WERE PRESENT FARTHER TO THE
WEST EARLIER. THIS WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW IS...AS NOTED ALSO BY SPC
DISCUSSION...ALSO NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SVR.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON QPF...ESPECIALLY THE ETA. THIS MODEL
ONLY PRODUCES LIGHT (LESS THAN .25) PCPN FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. HPC
PCPN PROGS CALL FOR BETWEEN .25 AND .50 (WEST TO EAST GRADIENT)
ACROSS THE CWA.

IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWERS AND TSRA
TODAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
DO NOT ENVISION SOLID LINE OF SVR MARCHING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA.
BEST CHANCE WILL PROBABLY BE LATER IN THE DAY IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE CWA...WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS THE LONGEST
TIME TO WORK ON THE ATMS. WILL NOT TIME PCPN IN WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST ZONES...BUT LIMIT TO MAINLY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. HAVE
REMOVED THE "COOLER" WORDING FOR SUSQ VALLEY...WITH MID 80S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

MODELS SHOW THAT AFTER SURFACE FROPA...UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE STILL LAGGING. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS ZONE
SET.

THU LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THU NIGHT ON FAST NW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...COUPLED WITH APPCHG SURFACE WMFNT...ADDED CHANCE QSHRA TO
THU NIGHT MOST AREAS.

WORK ZONES ALREADY OUT.

.CTP...NONE.

JUNG