Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
213 PM CST SUN NOV 5 2000

POTENT S/WV IN NRN OLD MEXICO WL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE EWD TNT AND
SWEEP THROUGH SOUTH TX BY MON MORNING.  THIS WL PLACE MOST OF SOUTH
TX...ESPECIALLY THE NRN PARTS WITHIN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT DYNAMICAL
FORCING.  MEANWHILE...A 110KT+ JET STREAK WL NOSE INTO SOUTH TX
TNT...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING.

A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FORMED ACROSS SW TX AND NRN OLD
MEXICO.  THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS LINE WL EVOLVE INTO A
STRONG TO SVR SQLN AS IT PUSHES EWD TNT.  IT WL CONTINUE BUILDING
SWD AS WELL TOWARDS THE BETTER THICKNESS DIFL.  THIS SQLN IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTH TX DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FIRST PD.
BLV SVR POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS...ESPECIALLY NRN AND WRN ZONES.  THE
MAIN SVR THREAT WL BE FROM STRONG WINDS.  WL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MENTION LCLY HVY RAIN AS WELL.  TRAINING OF ECHOES MAY CAUSE SOME
FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR THE NRN COUNTIES.  HOWEVER...WL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FFA ATTM AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WL BE MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP.

A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ONCE THE CONVECTION PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST.  THE MOISTURE WL REALLY SCOUR OUT ON MONDAY AS WLY/NWLY WINDS
OCCUR BEHIND THE PACIFIC COLD FNT.  DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE FNT WE
SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE 80S.  MAY SEE SOME FOG ON MON NIGHT DUE TO
THE WET GROUND AND DRY AIR.  LOW LVL MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
RIO GRANDE RGN LATE MON NIGHT AS THE SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS ONCE
AGAIN...DUE TO ANOTHER POTENT SOUTHWEST UPR LOW DIGGING SWD.
MOISTURE WL INCREASE AREAWIDE ON TUE AS THE OLD PACIFIC FNT BEGINS MOVING
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FNT ACROSS THE GULF.  MAY SEE A FEW SHRAS LATE
TUE ACROSS ERN ZONES.  ELY LOW LVL FLOW WL HOLD TEMPS DOWN BELOW
MONS LVLS.

EXTENDED...THE DIGGING UPR LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST WL CONTINUE TO DRAW
THE WARM FNT NWD THROUGH OUR CWFA DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED
TIMEFRAME.  SHRAS/TSRAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH
THIS PD.  THIS UPR LOW WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WED NIGHT AND
WL DRAG A COLD FNT THROUGH EARLY THU.  MORE STRONG STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN WL ONCE AGAIN EXIST.  DRIER WX IS EXPECTED
FROM THU AFTN THROUGH FRI.  ANOTHER CHC OF PCPN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FNT APPROACHES.

MARINE...PAC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND TOWARD MON MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT FOR
MARINERS. MSAS INDICATED A TIGHTENING PGF. BOTH AVN/NGM MODELS PROGS
WINDS INCREASING TO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. BAYS WILL BE CLOSER TO SFC TROUGH...THEREFORE WIND SPEEDS
REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE SCEC RANGE. ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SW AND DIMINISH AND TSTM THREAT ENDS. AS CENTER OF HIGH
PRESS REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WINDS VEER BECMG NE BY MON NIGHT AND E BY TUE. AS ANOTHER
UPPER LOW SYSTEM DIGS ACROSS THE SW CONUS BY MID WEEK...SFC LOW
PRESS DEEPENS ACROSS W TX AND WINDS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY BY WED. MRF INDICATED 40 KNOT S WIND BY WED
NIGHT...HOWEVER FEEL THIS MAY BE TOO STRONG. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT AS WELL. OFFSHORE FLOW PROGD BY THU MORN WITH
THREAT OF TSTM ENDING. RETURN FLOW BY FRI WITH NEXT SYSTEM IN A
SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE/AGGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOWS.

PRELIMS FOLLOW...
CRP UB 068/085 059/078 070 6102
VCT UB 066/082 054/075 065 8102
LRD UB 064/082 061/077 068 7-01
NGP UB 072/084 065/076 073 6102
ALI UB 066/087 057/080 068 6101

MB...80
TE...81

.CRP...SCA FOR GMZ250-255-270-275.

TXZ229>234-239>247-060600-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
416 PM CST SUN NOV 5 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT.  DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TONIGHT.  MOST OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL
LINE.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING
WINDS.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL
LINE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COMMUNITIES OF LAREDO...
COTULLA...TILDEN...FREER...GEORGE WEST AND BEEVILLE BETWEEN 600 AND
1000 PM TONIGHT.  THESE PARTICULAR COMMUNITIES ARE UNDER A TORNADO
WATCH WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1000 PM.  THIS MEANS THAT TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

THE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE COMMUNITIES OF ALICE...
CORPUS CHRISTI...SINTON...ROCKPORT...GOLIAD AND VICTORIA BETWEEN
900 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

BESIDES THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SQUALL LINE.  ISOLATED TOTALS OVER 4 INCHES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  AS A RESULT...MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR TONIGHT.

RESIDENTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER SITUATION.  SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL
TV OR RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MBK