Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
145 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2000

.CURRENT SITUATION (RECAP OF THE DAY)...
JUICY...THAT BEST SUMS UP TODAYS WEATHER. WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE AROUND...ONLY TOOK A SPARK TO SET THINGS OFF. THE FIRST
OF TWO SHORTWAVES PASSED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVED THROUGH PORT ISABEL THIS
MORNING....WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ALSO..HAIL WAS REPORTED IN
HARLINGEN. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM LAREDO TO CORPUS CHRISTI. CLOUDY
SKIES WERE THE RULE. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO EXCEED FORECASTED
VALUES AS THERE IS CURRENTLY A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY. BROWNSVILLE WAS
ALREADY 80 AS OF 11 AM. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING LATE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...ALONG A DRYLINE LIKE
FEATURE. A BUSY FORECAST LIES AHEAD.

.SHORT TERM (NEXT 48 HOURS -> NOW THRU THU 3/16)...
ETA BRINGS IN A SECOND SHORT WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING A RE-FIRING OF ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. ONCE
AGAIN...MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALONG
THE DRYLINE FEATURE OVER OUR AREA. NEITHER ONE OF THESE BOUNDARIES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH UNTIL TOMORROW. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE. ENOUGH LIFT WILL LAST INTO WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. A SHEAR LINE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAY SEE
MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINE. EVERYTHING KICKS OUT TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TAKING ALL RAIN CHANCES
AWAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO BREAK UP AS WE GET
INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THURSDAY SHOULD BE PARTLY
CLOUDY. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE ON LOWS AND GO NEAR
MOS ON THE HIGHS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNDERSHOOTING LOWS LATELY...BUT
HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE HIGHS.

.MEDIUM RANGE (3 TO 5 DAYS -> FRI 3/17 THRU SUN 3/19)...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. FRIDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COOL DAY. THE SUN
SHOULD PEEK OUT A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MRF KEEPS A CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL GO MORE EASTERLY AND THEN
RETURN TO THE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
EXPECTING COOL SHOWERY AND BREEZY WEATHER TO DOMINATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED (6 TO 10 10 DAYS -> MON 3/20 THRU FRI 3/25)...
A WET PERIOD IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECTING A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE OVER US AS THEY GET KICKED OFF OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE...WITH EASTERLY FLOW.

.GENERAL FORECAST COMMENTS...
WET WET WET! THIS IS MUSIC TO THE EARS. THE NEXT 10 DAYS WILL BE THE
WETTEST SET OF DAYS WE HAVE SEEN IN MANY MONTHS. WE OWE OUR THANKS
TO THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...WHICH HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. THIS ALLOWS
FOR SHORT WAVES TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. IF THE MRF HOLDS UP...WE COULD
SEE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN SPREAD OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THIS WILL
HELP US OUT WITH OUR DRY CONDITIONS. IT MAY NOT END OUR
DROUGHT...BUT IT WILL PUT A DENT IN IT.

.MARINE (NEXT 48 HOURS -> NOW THRU THU 3/16)...
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS THE PGF
REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THURSDAY LOOKS GOOD...WITH NO RAIN AND ONLY MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY FORECAST NUMBERS...

BRO EB 071/080 069/083 059 56341
MFE EB 070/081 068/084 057 56341
RGC EB 068/082 066/086 054 56341
SPI EB 073/077 071/079 061 56341

THE AFTERNOON FORECASTING TEAM...
SYNOPTIC...56 (SW) / MESOSCALE...58 (JP) / HMT...ABBOTT

.BRO...NONE.

GMZ130-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-142050-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1257 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2000

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF FALFURRIAS
IS BUILDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN BROOKS COUNTY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER HIDALGO...BROOKS AND
JIM HOGG COUNTIES. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS VERY
UNSTABLE AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. SPRING BREAKERS ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO USE COMMON SENSE WHEN PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR YOU...REMAIN
IN A SAFE PLACE UNTIL THE DANGER PASSES.

PHILO