Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
300 PM MDT MON JUL 17 2000

CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR PICTURES ARE SHOWING DECENT SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURE WORKING ON THE UBIQUITOUS MOISTURE MAKING A SOLID LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  UNFORTUNATELY THE HEAVIEST RAINS
ARE CURRENTLY FALLING OVER THE HI MEADOWS AND BUFFALO CREEK BURN
AREAS.  BEHIND THIS LINE...ENOUGH HEATING AND MAYBE ANOTHER FEATURE
IS ALLOWING FOR MORE CONVECTION UPSTREAM SO A ROUND TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING.  A BIG DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS
IS THAT THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS ARE MOVING 15-20 MPH TO THE EAST.
ALSO...YESTERDAYS PRETTY DEEP EASTERLY FLOW IS NEARLY GONE ACCORDING
TO THE PROFILERS.  SO WITH MORE CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND THE
SATURATION FROM YESTERDAY WILL STILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING THROUGH 10 PM FOR THE FOOTHILLS...WESTERN PLAINS...AND PALMER
RIDGE.

FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...FAIRLY DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE WITH DECENT DRYING.  THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE/WIND/MOISTURE
GRIDS SHOW DECENT DRAINAGE SETTING UP IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER.  MAY PUT A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG THERE.

FOR TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE HUMPS UP A BIT WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE DESCENT PROGGED THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH SOME DRYING AT MOST
LEVELS.  HOWEVER...GRIDS STILL SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND WITH A DECENT THETA-E AXIS OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE DAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CAPES FROM 1000-1600 JOULES OVER THE
PLAINS.  CROSS SECTIONS ARE STILL SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY AND FAIR LAPSE RATES.  THE MID/UPPER FLOW DOES SLACK OFF
A BIT BY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOONS.  WILL KEEP SOME
10-20% POPS IN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE BIG CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY IS INCREASING MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS BY
AFTERNOON.  LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP A BIT WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY.  FORECAST CAPES ARE HIGHER AND SOMEWHAT OF AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS.  WINDS ALOFT BECOME PRETTY WEAK AS
WELL...AND THERE IS A BIT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MOVING IN BY THE
AFTERNOON.  WILL UP THE POPS TO 30-40% FOR THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY.  FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO BE 6-9 C
WARMER THEN TODAYS...THEN A 1-2 C COOL DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH ANOTHER SURFACE SURGE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  WILL KEEP CHANCE IN ALL
THREE DAYS ALONG WITH COOLER THEN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.        RJK

.DEN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT FOR ZONES...
       35/36/38/39/40/41/45/46/47.

COZ030-032>050-172000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1100 AM MDT MON JULY 17 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FRONT RANGE CITIES...THE FOOTHILLS...
AND ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES FROM NOON TO 10 PM...

SYNOPSIS: ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER YESTERDAY.  AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THE EXACT FOCUS OF TODAYS
ACTIVITY IS NOT YET CLEAR...BUT HEAVY RAIN OF UP TO 3 INCHES IN AN
HOUR IS POSSIBLE FROM THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD.

THE AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WILL BE THE BURN AREAS IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE DENVER METRO AREA.  WHILE THE RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.

GIMMESTAD