Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
10 AM MDT MON JUL 10 2000

HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT CLEARING NOW OCCURRING OVER PLAINS
BEFORE SOLAR HEATING SETS OFF CONVECTION THIS AFTN.  AMS STILL QT
MOIST WITH PCPBL H2O AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH OVER DEN AND GJT THIS
MRNG.  WITH FLOW ALF WKNG...CNVCTN WILL BE SLOWER MOVING SO PROSPECT
FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN EXISTS THIS AFTN WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL IN NERN
ZONES WHERE ALSO HAVE HIGHEST CAPES AND BEST PROSPECTS FOR SVR.  SVR
POTENTIAL NOT GREAT SINCE WIND SHEAR NOT VERY GOOD AND DO NOT SEE ANY
UPER LVL DSTRBNC NEARBY THAT WILL BE IN AREA TO ADD INSTBY BY 00Z.
ENUF MSTR TO BE CONCERNED ABT MOD-HVY RAIN IN BOBCAT AND HI-MEADOW
BURN AREAS.  CUD HAVE LRG AND RPD RUNOFF IF GET ABOUT 1/2 INCH RAIN
PER HOUR.  WITH A BASICALLY DWNSLP FLOW PTRN...I DOUBT THAT RAINFALL
WILL BE HVY ENUF THERE TO MERIT ANY KIND OF WATCH AT THIS POINT BUT
SVR WX SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP EYES PEELED.
BOODA

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030-032>050-102000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1010 AM MDT   MONDAY   JULY 10 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A VERY  MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER COLORADO AS MONSOON
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO.  THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING BY
NOONTIME OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND BY 2 PM OVER THE PLAINS.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION 10-20 MPH BUT CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE WITHIN ONE HOUR.  THIS AMOUNT OF WATER
COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS...INTERSECTIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE TO BANKFUL STAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
IN THE FOOTHILLS BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY STILL GET BETWEEN ONE HALF
AND ONE INCH OF RAIN.

ANYONE NEAR OR DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BOBCAT GULCH OR HIGH MEADOW WILDFIRE
AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPID AND LARGE RUNOFF FROM THE BURN AREAS AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IF MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN OF ONE HALF INCH OR
MORE PER HOUR OCCURS.  SIGNIFICANT SOIL EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THE BURN AREAS.

WITH THE AIR BEING VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO HAVE A SMALL POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF LINE FROM FORT MORGAN TO LIMON.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED BUT MAY BE NEEDED IN MORGAN...
LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  RAINFALL REPORTS WILL BE VERY MUCH APPRECIATED IF
HEAVY RAIN IS DETECTED.

END...BOODA...WSFO DENVER

COZ030-032>050-102200-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
130 PM MDT   MONDAY   JULY 10 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  VERY  MOIST AIR COVERS NORTHEAST COLORADO AS MONSOON
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO.  THE AIRMASS WILL
ALSO BE VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAUSING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS...SOME HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE WITHIN ONE HOUR.  THIS AMOUNT OF WATER MAY CAUSE FLOODING
OF STREETS...INTERSECTIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.  SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE TO BANKFUL STAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET ONE HALF AND ONE INCH OF RAIN.

ANYONE NEAR OR DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BOBCAT GULCH OR HIGH MEADOW WILDFIRE
AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPID AND LARGE RUNOFF FROM THE BURN AREAS AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IF MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN OF ONE HALF INCH OR
MORE PER HOUR OCCURS.  SIGNIFICANT SOIL EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THE BURN AREAS.

WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON...SOME THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
A LINE FROM FORT MORGAN TO LIMON MAY BECOME& SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED BUT RAINFALL REPORTS WILL BE
VERY MUCH APPRECIATED IF HEAVY RAIN IS DETECTED.

END...BOODA...WSFO DENVER