Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
315 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2000

THE VERY PERSISTENT UPR LVL RIDGE OVR THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IS
FCST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  ONE CHANGE
THAT WILL OCCUR IS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WL MOVE FROM ITS CURRNT
POSN OVER THE SRN PLAINS TO OVER CO.  THE MAIN IMPACT FM THIS SHIFT
IN THE RIDGE AXIS WOULD BE TO CUT OFF THE FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MSTR
ACRS THE RGN.  THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMNTS OF MSTR THAT WL BE OVR
THE FCST AREA.  THE NGM...AVN AND HI-RES ETA HOLD ON TO HIGHER RH
VALUES ALOFT THROUGH WED WHILE THE ETA IS DRIER AT MID LVLS. BY
LOOKING AT TODAYS WATER VAPOR PICTURES...IT APPEARS MSTR ALOFT OVR
AZ THIS AFTN WL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUES AFTN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.  AFTER THAT...THE WIND FIELDS DONT SEEM TO HAVE
MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MSTR
ALOFT GET TRAPPED UNDER THE RDG AND KEEP THE DIURNAL PATTERN OF AFTN
AND EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.  THE 500 MB HGTS ARE PROGGED TO
REMAIN ABV 590 AND TEMPS AT 700 MB AND 500 MB SEEM TO UNDERGO VERY
LTL CHANGE.  AS LONG AS THE AIRMASS DOESNT UNDERGO ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGE...THE STREAK OF 90 DEGREE DAYS AND DENVER INTL AIRPORT WL
PROBABLY CONT.  THE ONLY THING TO STOP IT WOULD BE IF ANY DAY HAD
APPRECIABLY MORE CLOUD COVER THAN THE REST.

OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...DEWPTS ON THE PLAINS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
CREEPING HIGHER...AND AS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTS...THIS TREND WL
CONTINUE.  OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE THREAT FM HEAVY RAINS
PRODUCED BY SLOW MOVG SHOWERS WL BE INCRSG.   IT IS TOO EARLY FOR
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...BUT BY MID-WEEK THAT COULD CHANGE.
    KDRBY

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030-032>050-102000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1010 AM MDT   MONDAY   JULY 10 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A VERY  MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER COLORADO AS MONSOON
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO.  THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING BY
NOONTIME OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND BY 2 PM OVER THE PLAINS.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION 10-20 MPH BUT CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE WITHIN ONE HOUR.  THIS AMOUNT OF WATER
COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS...INTERSECTIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE TO BANKFUL STAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
IN THE FOOTHILLS BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY STILL GET BETWEEN ONE HALF
AND ONE INCH OF RAIN.

ANYONE NEAR OR DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BOBCAT GULCH OR HIGH MEADOW WILDFIRE
AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPID AND LARGE RUNOFF FROM THE BURN AREAS AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IF MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN OF ONE HALF INCH OR
MORE PER HOUR OCCURS.  SIGNIFICANT SOIL EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THE BURN AREAS.

WITH THE AIR BEING VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO HAVE A SMALL POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF LINE FROM FORT MORGAN TO LIMON.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED BUT MAY BE NEEDED IN MORGAN...
LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  RAINFALL REPORTS WILL BE VERY MUCH APPRECIATED IF
HEAVY RAIN IS DETECTED.

END...BOODA...WSFO DENVER

COZ030-032>050-102200-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
130 PM MDT   MONDAY   JULY 10 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  VERY  MOIST AIR COVERS NORTHEAST COLORADO AS MONSOON
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO.  THE AIRMASS WILL
ALSO BE VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAUSING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS...SOME HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE WITHIN ONE HOUR.  THIS AMOUNT OF WATER MAY CAUSE FLOODING
OF STREETS...INTERSECTIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.  SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE TO BANKFUL STAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET ONE HALF AND ONE INCH OF RAIN.

ANYONE NEAR OR DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BOBCAT GULCH OR HIGH MEADOW WILDFIRE
AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPID AND LARGE RUNOFF FROM THE BURN AREAS AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IF MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN OF ONE HALF INCH OR
MORE PER HOUR OCCURS.  SIGNIFICANT SOIL EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THE BURN AREAS.

WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON...SOME THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
A LINE FROM FORT MORGAN TO LIMON MAY BECOME& SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED BUT RAINFALL REPORTS WILL BE
VERY MUCH APPRECIATED IF HEAVY RAIN IS DETECTED.

END...BOODA...WSFO DENVER