Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
130 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2000

ENVIRONMENT ON NERN CO PLNS WILL REMAIN SUITABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
INITATION (SHWRS/TSTORMS) WITH STORMS POSSIBLY SVR IN AIR MORE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE E OF THE FNT RNG URBAN CORRIDOR.  LARGE DAMAGING HAIL
AND ISOLD LANDSPOUTS/TORNADOES OUR BIGGEST CONCERN.  AMS SHOULD
STABILIZE FOLLOWING LATE EVE CONVECTION...BUT REMAIN QUITE MOIST
WITH DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE 45-55 DEG RNG.  ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT FOG AND STRATUS FORMATION IN THE LIMON AREA AND ACRS THE
NERN CORNER OF THE STATE.  COULD ALSO SEE OF THIS JUICY AIR AS FAR W
OF WELD...NENR BOULDER AND ERN LARIMER CTYS...SO WILL FCST PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS IN THESE AREAS AS WELL.  MDLS CONSISTENT WITH SWINGING
MID-UPR LVL TROF ACRS CO DURING THE DAY FRI WITH 700-500 FLOW GOING
NWLY BY 00Z/SAT.  WK SFC FNTL BNDRY IS FCST TO SLIDE S OUT OF SERN
WY FRI AFTN.  BNDRY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHWRS AND AFTN TSTORMS ACRS NERN PLAINS.  AT THIS TIME...NOT
EXPECTING STORMS TO BECOME SVR BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT GUSTY
MICROBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.  GRIDS SHOW SFC-700 MB WINDS GOING
NWLY (DOWNSLOPE) TOGETHER WITH A RECIPRICAL DECREASE IN DEWPTS/BNDRY
LYR MOISTURE.  THEREFORE XPCT TO SEE A FALL OFF IN SHWR ACTVTY LATE
FRI AFTN/EVE...ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE A CONTINUATION OF OROGRAPHIC
SHWRS OVRNGT IN THE MTNS MAINLY ALG AND W OF THE CONT DVD.  TEMPS
ABV 700 MB COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW ABV TIMBERLINE LATE FRI NGT/SAT
MRNG.

FOR THE 3-DAY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...TREND IS TOWARDS DRYING AND
WARMING WITH LARGE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.  SUNDAY APRS TO BE WARMEST DAY WITH RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVR
AREA.  MOS GUIDANCE GIVING MAX TEMP ON THE PLNS IN THE UPR 80S/LOWER
90S.  DOESN'T LOOK TOO BAD.  INFLUX OF SOME MID AND HI LVL MOISTURE
AND A SHIFT TO E-SELY BNDRY LYR WNDS WITH SFC TROF UP AGAINST THE
FNT RNG SHOULD LOWER MAX TEMPS ON MON BY SOME 3-5 DEGS F.  WILL ALSO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN TSTMS MON...MAINLY IN AND ALG THE
MTNS.   BAKER

.CO...NONE

COZ030-032>050-252000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1010 AM MDT THU MAY 25 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL COMBINE WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY.  MODERATE WIND
SHEAR EXISTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE...SO SOME OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY THE NOON
HOUR...AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LINE WILL LIKELY SET UP FROM THE
SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF DENVER EAST/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FORT MORGAN
AREA.  THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE PLAINS...INCLUDING THE FRONT RANGE METRO
AREAS.  WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES CAN ALSO BE ANTICIPATED ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE LINE AFTER 2 PM.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A LARGER
TORNADO IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A STERLING TO LIMON LINE WHERE
THE BEST WIND SHEAR PROFILE EXISTS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 PM.

BARJENBRUCH

COZ030-032>050-252200-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
145 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.  THE STRONGEST
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA.  THE
BOUNDARY EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR WIGGINS IN WESTERN MORGAN
COUNTY...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THIS FEATURE.

WITH MODERATE WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME OF THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE PLAINS...INCLUDING THE FRONT
RANGE METRO AREAS.  WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES CAN ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF DENVER.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A LARGER TORNADO IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF A STERLING TO LIMON LINE WHERE THE BEST WIND SHEAR PROFILE
EXISTS.

SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED.

BARJENBRUCH