Severe Thunderstorm Warning 383, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
306 AM CDT FRI AUG 04 2000

ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER ALABAMA IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS
BUILDS EASTWARD.  THIS WILL PUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER A
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.  BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD BE
TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE STATE.   MODELS SHOW WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA TODAY...TRYING TO PUSH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN.  WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL
IN PLACE...AND WITH UPPER LEVEL COLD POOLS MOVING OVER THE
STATE...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA TO
WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS TODAY.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER AIR SHOULD BE SETTLING OVER THE AREA...BUT FEEL
THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT THE LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.  WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR TEMPS...MOS LOOKS REASONABLE SO WILL NOT DEVIATE.

HSV 89/68/90/71 092 422
BHM 90/70/93/71 093 422
MGM 92/71/94/72 094 532

.BHM...NONE.