Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
320 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2000

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 36HRS.  SYNOPTICALLY
THINGS LOOK VERY MUCH LIKE EXPECTED...EXCEPT THE FRONT STALLED A
BIT NORTH OF WHERE I THOUGHT IT WOULD BE.  THIS WILL MOVE THE MAIN
CONCERN THREAT AREA TODAY...THE TWO SHORT WAVES THAT FORM ON THE
STALLED FRONT...A BIT NORTH.

THERE SEEMS TO BE A THREE PART FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 36HRS.
THE TWO IMPULSES THAT FORM TODAY...AND THE FRONT/SQUALL LINE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  BASED ON TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL MAINLY AFFECT NW AL
THIS AFTERNOON.  THE SECOND IMPULSE WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AL THIS THIS
AFTERNOON AD THIS EVENING.

THE FRONT/SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  GREATEST CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF STATE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

S

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES
ONLY.  FCSTR 80

HSV ET 069/055 058/035 054 4862
BHM ET 074/058 062/035 058 5882
MGM ET 079/059 067/040 061 5561

.BHM...NONE.

80

NNNN

ALZ001>038-040>050-101630-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
926 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2000

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GATHER STRENGTH OVER PARTS OF
TEXAS THIS MORNING.  THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD ALABAMA TONIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE STATE BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

THE AIRMASS OVER ALABAMA WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY...AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
LOCALLY SEVERE TODAY...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

AS THE SURFACE FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
STATE TONIGHT...NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
WEST OF ALABAMA THIS EVENING....AND STATEWIDE OVERNIGHT.  AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTH...AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...WITH STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  SOME OF THE SEVERE
STORMS MAY ALSO PERSIST OVER EASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...
BUT UPPER LEVEL WIND FORECASTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES AS WELL TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS...AND STATEMENTS...AND PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION LATER
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

PLEASE KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST WEATHER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ON
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER EVENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED EVENT TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM,AL
1153 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2000

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

853 AM     BESSEMER                  AL   1.75 INCH HAIL
03/10/00   JEFFERSON

1153 AM    ADDISON                   AL   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/10/00   WINSTON

GM

E

ALZ001>038-040>050-102100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2000

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THE AIRMASS OVER ALABAMA WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A COLD FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.  NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WEST OF ALABAMA THIS EVENING....AND STATEWIDE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.  THE BRUNT OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF ALABAMA.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WIND FORECASTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES LATER TONIGHT...AND EARLY SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION...RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES HAS OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS MAY PRODUCE FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE TO LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...AND SOME FLASHY CREEKS.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA
SHOULD BE ACTIVATED.  ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION THIS
EVENING.  YOU SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.