Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
300 PM CST THU MAR 09 2000

COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE FIRST DAY BACK. SURFACE FRONT LOCATED FROM
NEAR KBWG TO KLIT LINE WITH LOW SHOWING UP AROUND KHOT. THIS FRONT
HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THE PAST 6 HRS. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AL WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEPRESSED FOR NOW WITH ABSENCE OF LIFT AND CAP. ISOLATED TSTMS
DEVELOPING WEST CENTRAL MS IN CU FIELD BUT BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. SPC HAS SLGT RISK FOR W
AL DAY 1 BUT WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. SHORT RANGE MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT FRONT/TROUGH WILL REMAIN ORIENTED WEST-EAST THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AL INTO FRI NIGHT. SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT FRI
NIGHT AND MOVES JUST NW OF AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS INTO
THE LWR MS VLY EARLY SAT WITH POTENT S/W IN BASE OF TROUGH. ROUND OF
STRONG TSTMS IN STORE FOR LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT BUT WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS ADJUST FOR TIMING AND SEVERE WORDING.

WITH BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL AL AND
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS IN PERIOD 1.
POPS INCREASE WITH TIME FROM CHANCE PERIOD 2 TO LIKELY/CAT PERIOD 3
AND 4. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS/FAN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HSV CE 052/065 055/057 035 75238
BHM EE 055/074 057/064 035 75238
MGM BE 058/078 059/069 040 75236=

.BHM...NONE.

75