Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
315 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2000

ATTM...A COLD FRONT...ON A CANADIAN...TULIA...HEREFORD LINE CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT STEADILY
FALL AND REMAIN IN THE 30S IN THE OK PANHANDLE.  IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE LOWER 80S. DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR
CLARENDON SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOPLNS. MODELS PERFORMED POORLY WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE AND FEEL GUIDANCE TEMPS WAY
OVERDONE FOR AFTN HIGHS FOR SUNDAY.

MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE SE CORNER OF FA. SHALLOW
DOME OF COOLER AIR SHOULD BE REINFORCED OVERNIGHT BEHING SHORTWAVE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH AND NE SECTIONS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN NE NM. SOME OF THIS PCPN MAY SPREAD ACROSS NRN ZONES
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. PCPN LEAST LIKELY IN SW AREAS.

AFTER TONIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA...AND A RAPID WARM UP IN STORE THROUGH TUESDAY.  WILL LEAVE
SLGT CHC POPS IN ERN ZONES WED AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA. APPEARS MOST OF THE FA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS EAST.

DHT 33/63 38/82 50  300
AMA 38/68 40/85 52  200

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

SD

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-152300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1255 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2000

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM FOLLETT TO
LIPSCOMB TO MIAMI TO CLARENDON.  A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND BY EARLY THIS EVENING IT WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE LIFT FROM THE FRONT AND THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE TO SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS.  HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS THE WINDS ALOFT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS
THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD REMAIN ALERT...AND BE
READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

GOEHRING