Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
315 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2000

SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE SCATTERED ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS IN
WAKE OF OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CONVECTION...WITH PRIMARY BOUNDARY
ORIENTED FROM W OF KCAO...S OF KDHT...S OF KAMA AND S OF KCDS.
MEANWHILE...A BARRAGE OF MINOR MID/UPR LVL DISTURBANCES ROTATING
THROUGH BASE OF WRN U.S. TROUGH CONTINUE TO TAKE AIM ON W TX.

SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFICULTY IN REGARDS TO
THESE DISTURBANCES AND HAVE PERSISTANTLY DOWNPLAYED AFTN/NTTIME
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED QPF. OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE PERFORMED
RATHER WELL.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SVR WX POTENTIAL IS MAIN CONCERN. 18Z RUC2
INDICATING AN AREA OF 3000 PLUS CAPE OVER THE SWRN TWO-THIRDS OF TX
PNHDL AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY INDICATING LI/S BELOW -10. ALSO...
PERSISTENT AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CENTERED NEAR KCVS ON MSAS
IS THOUGHT TO BE IN VICINITY OF JUNCTION BETWEEN REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND LEE SFC TROUGH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM.
DESPITE WEAK FLOW IN MID AND UPR LVLS...WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN
SOME THROUGH THE EVENING AS SMALL JETLET PASSES OVER THE RGN.
COMBINE THIS WITH MODERATELY STRONG LOW TO MID LVL VEERING OF
WINDS...DEPICTED ON KAMA VWP AND KTCC PRFLR...UPDRAFTS SHOULD EASILY
ROTATE. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE WET MICROBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE WITH THE PRESENCE OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY BECOME MAIN FOCUS.

MORE OF THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED ON MON. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT SVR POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE AS PREVELANT. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS
IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MON. BETTER CHANCES SHOULD COME TUE AFTN
THROUGH EARLY WED AS POWERHOUSE MID/UPR LVL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE PACIFIC NW AND DIVES SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CNTRL
U.S....BRINGING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WITH IT.  ALTHOUGH
THINGS COULD EASILY CHANGE BY TUE EVENING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EPISODE OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.

IN THE EXTENDED...RESIDUAL PCPN POSSIBLE ON WED BEHIND FRONT BEFORE
DRYING OUT THU AND FRI. ASIDE FROM A TWEAK HERE AND THERE...CURRENT
EXTDD FCST LOOKS GOOD.

AMA 66/89 66/91 64 7343
DHT 62/88 63/91 61 7343
BGD 65/88 65/90 64 6343
GUY 64/88 64/90 64 6343
HHF 68/86 66/90 66 6343
WLG 69/88 69/92 68 6343

.AMA...<
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

JH

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-112300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE THE
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A DEVELOPING DRYLINE LIES
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

EITHER OF THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MOVEMENT OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

DUE TO THE DEPTH AND RICHNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALREADY
IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY...THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AS MID-LEVEL DRYING COMMENCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME AN ADDITIONAL THREAT. THE TURNING OF
WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BEi
READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

COCKRELL