Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2000

.DISC...STL PLENTY OF SUN S OF MHWK VLY AND THIS WL BE THE AREA OF
GREATEST CNCRN THIS AFT.

.SHORT TERM...RMNTS OF MCS MOVD THRU HDSN VLY ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
MOR SHRA/TSRA NOW DVLPG ALG S SHORE OF LK ONT AND TRCKG E DWN MHWK
VLY. XTNSV CLD CVR FM MHWK VLY N AND UPSTREAM FM THIS AREA. WL THUS
LWR AFT TMPS 5 TO 10 DEG IN THIS AREA...75 TO 80 N AND ARND 80 IN
MHWK VLY AND GTR CAP DSTRCT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN THRU ERLY AFT WL
LEAVE TMPS IN 80 TO 85 DEG RNG IN ERN CTKLS AND BERKS AND 85 TO 90
IN MID HDSN VLY AND LITCHFIELD CTY. CDFNT AT 12Z WAS ACRS ERN MI AND
WITH CURRENT MOVMNT E AT ARND 50 MPH WL XPCT IT TO BE NR WRN NY
16Z-17Z AND INTO HDSN VLY 21Z-22Z. HELICTIES ARE MARGINAL GIVEN
CURRENT VEERING IN LOW LVLS FM SW-W WITH MCH OF HELICITY DUE TO GOOD
SPEED SHR. IF N-S VLYS CHANNEL FLW THEN DIR SHR AND HELICITY WL
INCRS. CAPES IN 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFT...BUT 1500-2000 J/KG ARND
21Z IN MID HDSN VLY...SRN BERKS AND LITCHFIELD CTY. WL CONT ENHANCED
WRDG PER PRVS FCST.

.LONG TERM...NO CHNGS MADE BEYONF THIS AFT PD.

.ALY...NONE.

A

CTZ001-MAZ001-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-VTZ013-014-
022100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THOSE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 57
MILES AN HOUR...AND HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR MORE IN
DIAMETER...ARE POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GREATEST FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH.  THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DURING
THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON...NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.  TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AT SPEEDS UP TO 50 MPH.

IF YOU WILL BE OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON...KEEP A WARY EYE ON THE
SKY. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY.
BOATERS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS BECAUSE THEY WILL NOT ONLY BE
VULNERABLE TO WIND AND HAIL...BUT TO LIGHTNING.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RUSH EASTWARD INTO THIS MUGGY AIR MASS
TOUCHING OFF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE OFFICIAL VOICE OF THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
WEATHER EVENT.