Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MDT SAT JUL 29 2000

BIG PICTURE SHOWS UPPER HIGH CENTER CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARDS UTAH
AND UPPER LOW IN MIDWEST RETROGRADING A BIT SOUTHWEST. RESULT IS A
NORTH TO NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SOME 500MB COOLING AS THE HIGH CENTER
MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND WEAK VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH
SHOULD CONTINUE A TREND TOWARDS INCREASED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS UPPER
FLOW WILL KEEP STORMS AWAY AND WILL REQUIRE SOME SURFACE FEATURE FOR
A KICKER. OVERALL...ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST EASTERN PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT SOME DAYS WILL BE STORM FREE. BELIEVE SUNDAY
WILL BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS...AS WEAK BOUNDARY OUT THERE NOW SHOULD
MOVE FURTHER WEST TONIGHT AND REMOVE SURFACE BASED KICKER. FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WEST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY DEPENDENT
ON STEERING FLOW. LIKE LAST NIGHT...THINK CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE EVENING IN A SWATH FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL TO THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, WITH MCS TYPE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THERE PER EARLIER COORD WITH EPZ. WILL MENTION GUSTY EAST WINDS
THROUGH CENTRAL MTNS. AGAIN TONIGHT WITH COMBO OF WEAK SURFACE
FEATURE AND OUTFLOW FROM STORMS MOVING SOUTH OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS. WON'T MESS MUCH FWC TEMPS AND WILL ADJUST POPS TO FAVOR
MOSTLY OROGRAPHICS.

EXTENDED...UPPER HIGH OVER GREAT BASIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP MORE W-E
RIDGE AXIS AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO SYSTEM MOVING INTO
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERALL...NOT ANY BIG CHANGES EXCEPT PERHAPS TO
HAVE EVEN MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE STEERING FLOW. CAN/T
RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE EAST WITH ANY WEAK FRONTS OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAY BE AROUND. 42

ABQ BB 065/091 065/091 064 42312
SAF BB 057/086 057/086 056 42223
TCC AA 060/086 063/091 062 42100

.ABQ...NONE.

CSM

NMZ001>021-026-291800-

NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK..UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1100 AM MDT SAT JUL 29 2000

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAIN
IN THE AREA...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...LINCOLN COUNTY...MODERATE
...LOS ALAMOS COUNTY...MODERATE
...SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...MODERATE

NOTE...IN BURNED AREAS...EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME
PERIOD COULD CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS.

SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COMBINATION OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH AND SOME
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AT MID LEVELS WILL CREATE THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 60 MPH AND A PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL AS STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO WARMER AND DRIER AIR BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN GILA REGION.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON FROM AROUND 300 PM
THROUGH 900 PM IN AN AREA MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SOCORRO TO
GRANTS TO GALLUP.

COUNTIES WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED...
...EASTERN NEW MEXICO...
NONE

...CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
SOCORRO

...WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...
MC KINLEY	CIBOLA		CATRON

THIS OUTLOOK PRODUCT IS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES TO IDENTIFY POTENTIAL
WEATHER HAZARDS. IT IS NOT INTENDED TO REPLACE SPECIFIC STATEMENTS
OR WARNINGS RELATED TO FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE THUNDESRSTORMS.

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KMAF.
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS35 KEPZ.

CSM