Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1135 AM MDT SAT JUL 29 2000

UPDATED MORNING ZONES TO EMPHASIZE SLIGHT CHANCE SEVERE FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS WHICH SHOULD MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS BY THEN...LOWER LEVELS COULD
HAVE ENOUGH OF A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION SUCH THAT THE STRONGER STORMS
MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF
BURST OF LARGE HAIL. SIMILAR PATTERNS HAVE PRODUCED SUCH RESULTS IN
THE PAST. ALSO...DOWNPLAYED PRECIP FOUR CORNERS TIL THIS EVENING AS
STEERING FLOW WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING ANYTHING IN THERE. WENT
PROBABILISTIC INSTEAD OF AREAL COVERAGE MOST OF EASFTERN PLAINS AS
COOLER AIR AT SURFACE AND NO UPSTREAM TSTM GENESIS AREA. 42

.ABQ...NONE.

CSM

NMZ001>021-026-291800-

NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK..UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1100 AM MDT SAT JUL 29 2000

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAIN
IN THE AREA...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...LINCOLN COUNTY...MODERATE
...LOS ALAMOS COUNTY...MODERATE
...SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...MODERATE

NOTE...IN BURNED AREAS...EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME
PERIOD COULD CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS.

SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COMBINATION OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH AND SOME
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AT MID LEVELS WILL CREATE THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 60 MPH AND A PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL AS STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO WARMER AND DRIER AIR BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN GILA REGION.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON FROM AROUND 300 PM
THROUGH 900 PM IN AN AREA MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SOCORRO TO
GRANTS TO GALLUP.

COUNTIES WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED...
...EASTERN NEW MEXICO...
NONE

...CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
SOCORRO

...WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...
MC KINLEY	CIBOLA		CATRON

THIS OUTLOOK PRODUCT IS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES TO IDENTIFY POTENTIAL
WEATHER HAZARDS. IT IS NOT INTENDED TO REPLACE SPECIFIC STATEMENTS
OR WARNINGS RELATED TO FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE THUNDESRSTORMS.

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KMAF.
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS35 KEPZ.

CSM