Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 PM MDT MON JUN 12 2000

CONVECTION FIRED UP TODAY IN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. ONE
STORM HAS GENERATING SOME HAIL AND ONE BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADO ALONG
THE DE BACA AND GUADALUPE COUNTY LINE.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE DRYING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
PARTS OF NEW MEXICO IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A COUPLE OF SURFACE
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. THIS EASTERLY FLOW
DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS EARLIER INDICATIONS...SO THINK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MAYBE BACK TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

WINDS PICK UP AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND WINDS ACROSS NM WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. MOST AREA WILL
SEE VELOCITIES IN THE 15-25 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. STILL NOT
CONFIDENT THAT ALL MOISTURE GETS SWEPT OUT SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WILL ALSO
KEEP THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS AND SIGNIFICANT HEATING.

KMV

ABQ BB 062/094 062/089 063 33100
SAF BB 055/089 055/083 054 33---
TCC BB 066/096 063/083 064 33111

.ABQ...NONE.

NMZ001>021-026-122200-

NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1030 AM MDT MON JUN 12 2000

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY GENERATE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS AT THEIR STRONGEST
STAGES.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAIN
IN THE AREA...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...LINCOLN COUNTY...MODERATE
...LOS ALAMOS COUNTY...LOW
...SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...LOW

NOTE...IN BURNED AREAS...EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME
PERIOD COULD CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS...

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO FORCE A SURFACE COOL FRONT INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO TUESDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WIND PROFILES BOTH
OBSERVED AND FORECAST SUGGEST MINIMAL SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

COUNTIES WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED...

...EASTERN NEW MEXICO...
 NONE

...CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
NONE

...WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...
NONE

THIS OUTLOOK PRODUCT IS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES TO IDENTIFY POTENTIAL
WEATHER HAZARDS. IT IS NOT INTENDED TO REPLACE SPECIFIC STATEMENTS
OR WARNINGS RELATED TO FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS35 KEPZ.
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KMAF.

KMV