Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1100 AM MDT MON JUN 12 2000

QUICK LOOK AT MORNING MODELS AND SURFACE DATA...CURRENT FORECASTS
LOOKS ADEQUATE. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...LACK OF SUFFICIENTLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS HAD A HARD
TIME GENERATING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL DROP THE SEVERE TALK AND
JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE
SOME SMALL HAIL.

MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TODAY...AND IT APPEARS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO GET GOING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...MOVE OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY GENERATE SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WILL INCREASE POPS FOR SANTA FE AND TAOS SINCE CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER JEMEZ. KMV

.ABQ...NONE.

NMZ001>021-026-122200-

NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1030 AM MDT MON JUN 12 2000

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY GENERATE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS AT THEIR STRONGEST
STAGES.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAIN
IN THE AREA...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...LINCOLN COUNTY...MODERATE
...LOS ALAMOS COUNTY...LOW
...SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...LOW

NOTE...IN BURNED AREAS...EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME
PERIOD COULD CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS...

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO FORCE A SURFACE COOL FRONT INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO TUESDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WIND PROFILES BOTH
OBSERVED AND FORECAST SUGGEST MINIMAL SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

COUNTIES WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED...

...EASTERN NEW MEXICO...
 NONE

...CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
NONE

...WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...
NONE

THIS OUTLOOK PRODUCT IS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES TO IDENTIFY POTENTIAL
WEATHER HAZARDS. IT IS NOT INTENDED TO REPLACE SPECIFIC STATEMENTS
OR WARNINGS RELATED TO FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS35 KEPZ.
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KMAF.

KMV