Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST THU AUG 26 1999

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
PROVIDE A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL STEER REMNANTS OF THE FORMER HURRICANE BRET
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON IS IN DOLDRUM
AREA. TO THE NORTH H5 TEMPS AND MOISTURE ARE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STRONG STORMS. TO THE SOUTH DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD ALLOWS STORMS TO
IGNORE WARM H5 TEMPS IN BRETS CIRCULATION. WE STILL GET SHOWERS AND
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOTHING SEEMS TO ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME AND
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT STORMS DOWN IN MEXICO WILL PROPOGATE NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT BUT NOT COUNTING ON THAT. TOMORROW
SEEMS TO BE A BETTER DAY...LOW DESERTS STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND WE MAY GET A LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM THAT DIRECTION ON
FRIDAY...OR AT LEAST FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO
THE TROF KICKING OUT TO THE NORTH. WHATEVER THE CASE MODEL POPS ARE
WAY HIGH AND DONT SEE ANY REASON TO IGNORE THIS GIVEN ALL THE
MOISTURE THAT IS AROUND.

.TWC...NONE.