Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST THU AUG 26 1999

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
PROVIDE A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL STEER REMNANTS OF THE FORMER HURRICANE BRET
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON IS IN DOLDRUM
AREA. TO THE NORTH H5 TEMPS AND MOISTURE ARE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STRONG STORMS. TO THE SOUTH DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD ALLOWS STORMS TO
IGNORE WARM H5 TEMPS IN BRETS CIRCULATION. WE STILL GET SHOWERS AND
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOTHING SEEMS TO ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME AND
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT STORMS DOWN IN MEXICO WILL PROPOGATE NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT BUT NOT COUNTING ON THAT. TOMORROW
SEEMS TO BE A BETTER DAY...LOW DESERTS STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND WE MAY GET A LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM THAT DIRECTION ON
FRIDAY...OR AT LEAST FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO
THE TROF KICKING OUT TO THE NORTH. WHATEVER THE CASE MODEL POPS ARE
WAY HIGH AND DONT SEE ANY REASON TO IGNORE THIS GIVEN ALL THE
MOISTURE THAT IS AROUND.

.TWC...NONE.

AZZ019-029>035-270500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST THU AUG 26 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

                          *CONDITIONAL*   *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY            AREAL    PROBABILITY  RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
                 COVERAGE   OF SEVERE     1.00      2.00    MOTION

COCHISE             55          10         15         5    W 15
GRAHAM              55          10         15         5    W 15
GREENLEE            60           5         20        10    W 15
TUCSON/ERN PIMA     50          15          5         0   SW 10
TOHONO OODHAM      50          15          5         0   SW 10
SOUTHEAST PINAL     35          10          5         0    W 10
WESTERN PIMA        40          15          0         0   SW 10
SANTA CRUZ          55          15         15         5   SW 10

SYNOPSIS...REMNANTS OF BRET HAVE SPREAD MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA BUT STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                 THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
                 REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                 LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
                 PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                 ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                 LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

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