Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1999
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 5, 1999, 1:03 PM MST for Pinal County, Arizona. It was in force for 42 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 5, 1999, 1:03 PM MST (20:03 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 5, 1999, 1:45 PM MST
- In force
- 42 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction
County Pinal County, AZ
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 26 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -296 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2467 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 6 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -9 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -9 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
The text of this product is not in the archive. The NWS text archive before 2002 is incomplete.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 5, 9:30 AM MST, 3 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 9:30 AM MST, 3 hours 33 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 930 AM MST MON JUL 5 1999 SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A FEW STORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DISCUSSION...12Z TUCSON SOUNDING LOOKING BETTER TODAY...ENOUGH OF A VERTICAL PROFILE FOR A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZATION. SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW INCREASING AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A HIGH NEAR THE 4 CORNERS. WEAK INVERTED TROUGH / MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE DEVELOPING EASTERLIES COULD ENHANCE THINGS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.3. NICE 700MB THETA-E PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HRS. DEBRIS CLOUD SCATTERING OUT NICELY SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET GOOD SURFACE HEATING. A TOUCH FURTHER WEST WE ARE FIGHTING A WEAK DRY SLOT WHERE FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO WAS A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE OVER THE PAST 36 HRS. ANYWAY...I LIKE THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH A BUSY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON / EVENING AND A TREND TO SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY WEST. MORE EFFICIENT PROCESSES WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL HAVE US WATCHING OUTFLOWS MORE CLOSELY ALONG WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WINDS. NO UPDATES PLANNED. MEYER .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 5, 12:45 PM MST, 18 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-060500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST MON JUL 5 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 50 20 50 10 W 7
GRAHAM 50 15 35 0 W 7
GREENLEE 50 10 35 0 W 8
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 45 20 45 10 NW 9
TOHONO OODHAM 30 10 30 0 NW 9
SOUTHEAST PINAL 30 10 30 0 NW 8
WESTERN PIMA 10 0 20 0 NW 6
SANTA CRUZ 45 20 55 15 NW 8
SYNOPSIS...VERY GOOD AVIALABLE MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY
OVER YESTERDAY. STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BOTH A CONSIDERATION. EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY
TO LINGER OVERNIGHT.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/Special weather statement, Jul 5, 12:45 PM MST, 18 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-060500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST MON JUL 5 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 50 20 50 10 W 7
GRAHAM 50 15 35 0 W 7
GREENLEE 50 10 35 0 W 8
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 45 20 45 10 NW 9
TOHONO OODHAM 30 10 30 0 NW 9
SOUTHEAST PINAL 30 10 30 0 NW 8
WESTERN PIMA 10 0 20 0 NW 6
SANTA CRUZ 45 20 55 15 NW 8
SYNOPSIS...VERY GOOD AVIALABLE MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY
OVER YESTERDAY. STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BOTH A CONSIDERATION. EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY
TO LINGER OVERNIGHT.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/The office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 12:38 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 92 min |
| Jul 5, 12:38 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Santa Cruz | 32 min |
| Jul 5, 2:43 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Greenlee | 47 min |
| Jul 5, 2:50 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 65 min |
| Jul 5, 3:18 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 92 min |
| Jul 5, 3:39 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima, Santa Cruz | 61 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1999Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1999
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.