Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST MON JUL 5 1999

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXPECT
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A
FEW STORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...12Z TUCSON SOUNDING LOOKING BETTER TODAY...ENOUGH OF A
VERTICAL PROFILE FOR A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZATION. SOUTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASING AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A HIGH
NEAR THE 4 CORNERS. WEAK INVERTED TROUGH / MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IN THE DEVELOPING EASTERLIES COULD ENHANCE THINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.3. NICE 700MB THETA-E
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HRS.
DEBRIS CLOUD SCATTERING OUT NICELY SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
GOOD SURFACE HEATING. A TOUCH FURTHER WEST WE ARE FIGHTING A WEAK
DRY SLOT WHERE FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO WAS A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE OVER
THE PAST 36 HRS. ANYWAY...I LIKE THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH A BUSY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON / EVENING AND A TREND TO SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
SLOWLY WEST. MORE EFFICIENT PROCESSES WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL
HAVE US WATCHING OUTFLOWS MORE CLOSELY ALONG WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AND THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WINDS. NO UPDATES PLANNED. MEYER

.TWC...NONE.