Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1999
Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 9, 1999, 12:13 PM MST for Pima County, Arizona. It was in force for 62 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 9, 1999, 12:13 PM MST (19:13 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 9, 1999, 1:15 PM MST
- In force
- 62 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Pima County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 505 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -101 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1091 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 5 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -32 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 34 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KTUS 091911 FFWTUS AZC019-092015- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1213 PM MST FRI JUL 9 1999 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA INCLUDING SELLS IN THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION * UNTIL 115 PM MST * AT 1205 PM MST... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN NEAR SELLS. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. * RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN ONLY 20 MINUTES JUST NORTHEAST OF SELLS...WITH MUCH OF THE RUNOFF HEADING TOWARD SELLS WASH. UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY JUST NORTHEAST OF SELLS TH~ROUGH 1245 PM. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 1220 PM FOR WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND UP TO ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL. PYTLAK
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 9, 9:20 AM MST, 2 hours 53 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 9:20 AM MST, 2 hours 53 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 920 AM MST FRI JUL 9 1999 SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL KEEP SOUTHERN ARIZONA IN A PERSISTENT MONSOON FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED. ONE DISTURBANCE PUSHING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...AND ANOTHER ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...MAY ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND. DISCUSSION...NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FLOW PATTERNS EVEN WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT INSTABILITY IS STRONGER WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS GIVING US CAPES AROUND 1500J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDING HAS ALSO MOISTUED UP A BIT WITH PRECIP WATER LOOPS SHOWING A RATHER DEEP INFLUX INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 1.75". MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THE CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHICH IS INDUCING SE FLOW UP THE GULF AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. HERMOSILLO DEWPOINT HAS JUMPED 8F IN JUST 2 HOURS. CU/ISOLATED TOWERING CU IS BREAKING OUT OVER MOST OF NORTHERN SONORA PROVINCE AND ON A COUPLE OF MOUNTAINS AROUND TUCSON. WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW, THINK THE STORMS WILL BEHAVE A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY: HUGGING THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY RATHER SPOTTY BUT VERY WET, SLOW-MOVING CELLS IN THE DESERTS AND VALLEYS TONIGHT. WE'LL ADJUST FORECAST WORDING ACCORDINGLY. INCOMING MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVEREGENT ON LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ETA TAKES THE WEAK SECONDARY ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SW NEW MEXICO, STRENGTHENS IT, AND DRIFTS IT INTO SE AZ. IF THAT HAPPENS, ALL BUT THE WESTERN DESERTS WOULD HAVE A LOW-GRADE DAY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A BIG DAY ON SUNDAY. THE NGM, THOUGH, SQUASHES THE CICULATION AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO MARCH ACROSS, WITH THE 1ST AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURE IF EITHER SCENARIO (OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO) IS CORRECT, ESPECIALLY WITH THE PLAINS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH AND POSSIBLY BACKDORRING INTO NM. WATER VAPOR TRENDS ALONG WITH NEW AVN GUIDANCE WILL FIGURE PROMINENTLY ON WHAT WE DO ABOUT POPS vAND WORDING FOR LATER PERIODS. PYTLAK .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 9, 10:35 AM MST, 1 hour 38 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-100500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1035 AM MST FRI JUL 9 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 50 10 30 20 NW 4
GRAHAM 50 10 30 20 NW 4
GREENLEE 60 10 35 20 VRBL 5
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 45 15 35 20 NW 5
TOHONO OODHAM 40 20 35 25 NW 5
SOUTHEAST PINAL 35 15 30 20 NW 5
WESTERN PIMA 35 20 35 25 NW 6
SANTA CRUZ 60 10 40 20 NW 5
SYNOPSIS...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE
THAN YESTERDSAY. HOWEVER...THE MEAN FLOW PATTERN IS ALSO WEAKER
AND BECOMING VARIABLE NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THUS...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY OVER PIMA...SANTA CRUZ...AND SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY
WHERE THE RAIN HAS BEEN HEAVIEST OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE STORMS WILL TEND TO REMAIN NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AT FIRST...BUT
SEVERAL OF THEM WILL DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE
HEATS UP COMPLETELY. AN ISOLATED DMAAGING DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/PYTLAKSpecial weather statement, Jul 9, 10:35 AM MST, 1 hour 38 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-100500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1035 AM MST FRI JUL 9 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 50 10 30 20 NW 4
GRAHAM 50 10 30 20 NW 4
GREENLEE 60 10 35 20 VRBL 5
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 45 15 35 20 NW 5
TOHONO OODHAM 40 20 35 25 NW 5
SOUTHEAST PINAL 35 15 30 20 NW 5
WESTERN PIMA 35 20 35 25 NW 6
SANTA CRUZ 60 10 40 20 NW 5
SYNOPSIS...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE
THAN YESTERDSAY. HOWEVER...THE MEAN FLOW PATTERN IS ALSO WEAKER
AND BECOMING VARIABLE NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THUS...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY OVER PIMA...SANTA CRUZ...AND SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY
WHERE THE RAIN HAS BEEN HEAVIEST OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE STORMS WILL TEND TO REMAIN NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AT FIRST...BUT
SEVERAL OF THEM WILL DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE
HEATS UP COMPLETELY. AN ISOLATED DMAAGING DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/PYTLAKThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 9:37 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 43 min |
| Jul 8, 9:55 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 60 min |
| Jul 8, 10:51 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 44 min |
| Jul 9, 11:09 AM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 31 min |
| Jul 9, 11:50 AM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 30 min |
| Jul 9, 12:46 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Santa Cruz | 49 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1999Every flash flood warning in 1999
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.