Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 PM CST SAT FEB 6 1999

PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
WILL THERE BE SEVERE CONVECTION?
WHAT TYPE(S) OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR?

POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NM THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD WEST TX WILL
MOVE ON RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS.
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR SPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AT
21Z WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED SW-NE STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST RUC DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW AND MOVES
THE LOW ACROSS THE STATE...TO NEAR SEMINOLE AT 00Z...NEAR MIAMI AT
03Z...THEN ON INTO SOUTHWEST MO BY MIDNIGHT.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH JUST ISSUED TILL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-44.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS WEST TX
AND INTO EASTERN OK BY MIDNIGHT...THEN ON TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE FFA AT THIS TIME WITH
STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MOVE.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
ALONG SW-NE SURFACE BOUNDARY IF IT REMAINS ORIENTED AS IT IS TOO
LONG...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS CLOSELY.

PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF QUICKLY AND MOVE TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING.  SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SYSTEM WITH NICE WEATHER EXTENDING INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

FCSTID = 4
TUL   46  62  44  70 /  90  10   0   0
FSM   47  63  39  70 /  90  10   0   0
MLC   47  64  42  70 /  90  10   0   0
BVO   42  62  40  70 /  80  10   0   0
FYV   48  60  38  67 /  90  10   0   0
IDB   50  65  39  72 /  90  10   0   0
BYV   47  60  37  67 /  90  10   0   0
MIO   45  61  40  68 /  90  10   0   0
MKO   46  62  44  70 /  90  10   0   0
F10   46  62  43  70 /  90  10   0   0
HHW   50  65  40  72 /  90  10   0   0

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CHANCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NGM CONFIDENCE:  6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST SAT FEB 6 1999

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-44.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR ABILENE TEXAS.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST AND BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING.
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING IN TEXAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND SURFACE FRONT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A
SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-44.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS OUTLOOK IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE GUIDANCE TO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS CONCERNING TORNADOES...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...HIGH WIND EVENTS...FLOODING AND WINTER WEATHER.
INFORMATION CONCERNING OTHER HAZARDS CAN BE FOUND IN OTHER PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TULSA.