Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 AM CST SAT FEB 6 1999

SATL SHOWING SHORT WAVE OVER NM EDGING ITS WAY TOWARD WEST TX THIS
MORNING.  THICK CLOUD SHIELD BLANKETS THE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW SMALL
BREAKS NOTED NEAR THE RED RIVER.  TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SO NEXT
12-18 HRS LOOK WET ACROSS THE AREA AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS.  STILL
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE
INSTABILITY THE GREATEST. WILL UPDATE ZONES...BUT WILL NEED TO MAKE
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES.  MOST CHANGES WILL BE NEAR THE KS BORDER
WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED INTO NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.  WILL
GENERALLY GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.  NO CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS.

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST SAT FEB 6 1999

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-44.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR ABILENE TEXAS.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST AND BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING.
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING IN TEXAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND SURFACE FRONT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A
SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-44.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS OUTLOOK IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE GUIDANCE TO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS CONCERNING TORNADOES...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...HIGH WIND EVENTS...FLOODING AND WINTER WEATHER.
INFORMATION CONCERNING OTHER HAZARDS CAN BE FOUND IN OTHER PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TULSA.