Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CDT THU APR 22 1999

PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
WILL THERE BE SEVERE CONVECTION?
WILL THE CONVECTION BE SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS?
WHAT TYPE(S) OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR?

PARTIAL CLEARING AND RESULTANT INSOLATION HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO
BREAK THE CAP IN AREAS TO THE NW OF TUL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SE KS
WITH ACTIVITY SLOWLY BUILDING S ALONG FRONT INTO PARTS OF NE OK.
FRONT PROGGD TO SAG S TONIGHT...EXTENDING FROM NW AR INTO NW TX BY
12Z FRI.  WEAKENING CAP...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
FROM ENTRANCE REGION OF 110 KT H3 JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ALONG AND N OF FRONT OVERNIGHT.  WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS
OVER FAR NE OK/NW AR.

WITH UPPER FLOW NEARLY PARALLELING BOUNDARY...EXPECT FRONT TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER ECNTRL OK BY FRI AFTERNOON.  (PREFERRED THE
FARTHER S PLACEMENT OF FRONT PER AVN/ETA).  PERSISTENT SLY LLVL FLOW
INTO BOUNDARY ALONG WITH DECENT MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONT (PWS
AROUND 1.5) MAY ALLOW FOR A MCS TO FORM OVER NE OK BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH ACTIVITY PEELING OFF TO THE ESE INTO NW
AR OVERNIGHT.  AREAS S OF THE FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN DECENT CAP...SO
CHCS WILL BE KEPT VERY LOW.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS A DEFINENT POSSIBLITY
OVER FAR NE OK/NW AR...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FFA FOR NOW.

FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE IFFY BY SAT.  CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD
KEEP BOUNDARY NEAR STATIONARY ACRS ECNTRL OR SE OK...WITH A SLOW
DRIFT TO THE N BY SAT NIGHT.  WILL KEEP CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH LOWEST POPS OVER SRN ZONES.

MRF/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT MAINTAINING SWLY FLOW OVER SRN PLAINS
WITH SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF ENERGY EJECTING INTO PLAINS LATE SUN INTO
MON.  WILL MAINTAIN CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGHOUT EXTENDED PERIOD.

FCSTID = 18
TUL   60  70  58  65 /  30  40  40  40
FSM   63  80  62  73 /  10  20  30  30
MLC   64  80  63  72 /  10  20  30  30
BVO   58  68  56  63 /  30  40  40  40
FYV   59  76  59  68 /  40  40  50  40
IDB   64  84  64  80 /   5  20  20  20
BYV   59  76  59  68 /  40  40  50  40
MIO   58  70  57  65 /  40  40  50  40
MKO   60  73  60  68 /  30  40  40  40
F10   60  70  58  65 /  30  40  40  40
HHW   64  84  64  80 /   5  20  20  20

....
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CHANCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NGM CONFIDENCE:  6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED 2ND REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
430 PM CDT THU APR 22 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0415 PM    2 E LENAPAH                OK  2.75 INCH HAIL
04/22/99   NOWATA