Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
818 PM EST SAT JAN 02 1999

PREFRONTAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTS TO TREK EWD AT 30 MPH TOWARD
PNSULA THIS EVE. SPC IS LIKELY TO ISSUE A TORNADO WATCH FOR MUCH OF
THE N HALF OF FA INTO TNGT. WOULD OPT FOR SVR TSTM AS LIMITED DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR SFC-5K WNDS IN 00Z RAOB...BUT WINDS BTWN 1K-5K AVG 30-35 KTS.
CONCERN FROM HERE IS PREMISE FOR DAMAGING BOW ECHO WIND GUSTS AS LINE
PROCEEDS INTO LEVY CO 9P-11P...TAMPA BAY 11P-1AM...AND FMY 3A-5AM.

WILL AWAIT SPC TO DEFINE WATCH AREA BUT PRELIMINARY THOUGHT IS WATCH
WILL BECOME EFFECTIVE 9PM OR SO FOR THE AREA FROM MANATEE-HARDEE COS
NWD. WILL ALSO UP POPS TO NR 100 PCT TNGT AS LOOKING LIKE EVERYBODY
WILL GET WET OVERNGT AS JUICY DEW PTS IN THE MID 60S PREVAIL THRUOUT
PNSULA.

AS FAR A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...WILL HOLD ONTO SUCH UNTIL PASSAGE OF
TSTMS TO ASCERTAIN POST TSTM BNDRY WINDS...BUT SUSPECT SOME A WKR
SWLY COMPONENT OF 10-15 KNTS. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ONLY ABOUTF
ONE FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED.

DMR