Tornado Warning 51, NWS Shreveport, LA

FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. LATEST ETA RUN SHOWS MID LEVEL JET
KICKING IN AROUND 18Z OVER CWA. ONLY SAVING GRACE AT THIS TIME IS
THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS HELPING TO HOLD STABILITY DOWN A TAD AS
WELL AS SURFACE WIND BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. THIS MAY CHANGE
IF LARGE UNANTICIPATED BREAKS OCCUR. BUT UNTIL ANY UNFORESEEN CHANGES
OCCUR..FORECAST CAN CONTINUE AS IS.

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ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-041630-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1010 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD AFFECT MOST OF THE THE
FOUR STATE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL
OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTH LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
MC CURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING STORMS. THEREFORE THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
A FEW TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION. RESIDENTS IN THE
FOUR STATE REGION ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND
HAM RADIO OPERATORS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

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