Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
130 AM CST THU FEB 11 1999

FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS PERIOD...
1. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS MORNING AND AFTN
2. FFA/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR EASTERN CWA
3. CHANGE OVER TO -SN AND HOW MUCH
4. TEMPS AND COLD FRONT SPEED.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHARP DROP IN DEW PTS AND TEMPS WAS LOCATED
AT 06Z FROM OMA TO NEAR CNK TO EAST OF DDC. REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NORTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KS THROUGH SE NE. WV INDICATING MAIN TROF BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST ACROSS W TX AS WIND PROFILES IN THE AREA HAVE 90-110 KTS
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE THROUGH W TX INTO SW KS. DEW PTS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. ALSO WINDS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY IN SE KS AND EXT SW MO WITH JLN AT 06Z HAVING 35 MPH GUSTS.

ALL MODELS SHOW MAIN LONG WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH MID MS VALLEY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRI. THIS MEANS MAIN ENERGY AND VORTICITY MORE IN
LINE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. BUT COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MOST OF CWA BY 00Z FRI. THEREFORE TIMING AND
EXTENT OF/ OR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A PROBLEM AS AFTN HEATING
PLAYS INTO S CENTRAL MO BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MOST MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT BY 12Z FROM A MCI TO ICT
LINE. THEN BY 18Z FROM A SZL TO NEAR JLN. THEN 00Z FRI FROM A STL TO
AN ARG LINE. AVN THE FASTEST WITH THE MOVE AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS
MODEL DUE TO THE CURRENT MOVEMENT.

WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT... THE COLD FRONT/ AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BECOME A FACTOR FOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM AIZ TO SGF TO BRANSON.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST 94O AS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM AREAS IN SGF EASTERN CWA EARLY IN THE AFTN.

DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK IS INDICATING AREAS EAST OF A LINE
FROM BRANSON TO SGF TO COU MO WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOODING GUIDANCE ARE LOW
FROM BRANSON TO SALEM WILL READINGS IN THE 0.7 TO 1.3 INCH PER HOUR
RANGE. SO WOULD LIKE TO PUT OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM AREAS FROM
BRANSON TO SGF TO AIZ AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT LET THE
DAY SHIFT HANDLE THIS PROBLEM.

NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AREAS FROM SGF WEST.
BUT I BELIEVE IT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND ONLY A FEW AREAS WILL
APPROACH CRITERIA. NEXT WILL BE THE -SN CHANCE WHICH SEEMS TO BE
DIMINISHING AS MAIN MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF AREA BY 00Z WITH ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS REMAINING. SO WILL LEAN TOWARD A BRIEF CHANGE OVER ON THE
BACK SIDE WITH OVER TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO A DUSTING POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL DROP AS FRONT COMES THROUGH AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREE IN AN
HOUR. SO WILL WORD ZONES WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S
BEHIND FRONT. SC MO WILL SEE WARMEST TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER FWC NUMBERS WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

FORECAST FOR COORDINATION ONLY WILL BE SENT BY 245 AM VIA STLADMSGF.

SEVERE WX MOST LIKELY BY 6 AM IN FAR WESTERN ZONES... SO WILL NEED TO
SEE IF WATCH COMES OUT OR NOT BY THE TIME ZONES ARE ISSUED AT 4 AM.

CCF
SGF TB 066/021 040/020 050 2592-
JLN TB 068/021 043/024 054 2591-

TAGGART

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>056-066>068-077>080-088>090-093>095-101>
103-111515-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
730 AM CST THU FEB 11 1999

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1 PM FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI WEST OF
A LINE FROM KIMBERLING CITY TO SPRINGFIELD TO VERSAILLES...

THIS INCLUDES THE TOWNS OF...

PITTSBURG         JOPLIN            SPRINGFIELD       FORT SCOTT
NEVADA            NEOSHO            LAMAR             BOLIVAR
OZARK             MONETT            COLUMBUS

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.

N ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER... HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED EXTENSIVE RAINFALL LAST WEEK. THE
AREAS MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING WILL BE COMMUNITIES EAST OF
BRANSON AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS
MAY APPROACH TWO TO THREE INCHES BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM TODAY...PROMPTING
THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD DEPLOY AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH.

RUNNELS

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