Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
130 AM CST THU FEB 11 1999

FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS PERIOD...
1. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS MORNING AND AFTN
2. FFA/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR EASTERN CWA
3. CHANGE OVER TO -SN AND HOW MUCH
4. TEMPS AND COLD FRONT SPEED.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHARP DROP IN DEW PTS AND TEMPS WAS LOCATED
AT 06Z FROM OMA TO NEAR CNK TO EAST OF DDC. REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NORTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KS THROUGH SE NE. WV INDICATING MAIN TROF BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST ACROSS W TX AS WIND PROFILES IN THE AREA HAVE 90-110 KTS
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE THROUGH W TX INTO SW KS. DEW PTS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. ALSO WINDS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY IN SE KS AND EXT SW MO WITH JLN AT 06Z HAVING 35 MPH GUSTS.

ALL MODELS SHOW MAIN LONG WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH MID MS VALLEY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRI. THIS MEANS MAIN ENERGY AND VORTICITY MORE IN
LINE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. BUT COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MOST OF CWA BY 00Z FRI. THEREFORE TIMING AND
EXTENT OF/ OR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A PROBLEM AS AFTN HEATING
PLAYS INTO S CENTRAL MO BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MOST MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT BY 12Z FROM A MCI TO ICT
LINE. THEN BY 18Z FROM A SZL TO NEAR JLN. THEN 00Z FRI FROM A STL TO
AN ARG LINE. AVN THE FASTEST WITH THE MOVE AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS
MODEL DUE TO THE CURRENT MOVEMENT.

WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT... THE COLD FRONT/ AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BECOME A FACTOR FOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM AIZ TO SGF TO BRANSON.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST 94O AS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM AREAS IN SGF EASTERN CWA EARLY IN THE AFTN.

DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK IS INDICATING AREAS EAST OF A LINE
FROM BRANSON TO SGF TO COU MO WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOODING GUIDANCE ARE LOW
FROM BRANSON TO SALEM WILL READINGS IN THE 0.7 TO 1.3 INCH PER HOUR
RANGE. SO WOULD LIKE TO PUT OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM AREAS FROM
BRANSON TO SGF TO AIZ AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT LET THE
DAY SHIFT HANDLE THIS PROBLEM.

NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AREAS FROM SGF WEST.
BUT I BELIEVE IT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND ONLY A FEW AREAS WILL
APPROACH CRITERIA. NEXT WILL BE THE -SN CHANCE WHICH SEEMS TO BE
DIMINISHING AS MAIN MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF AREA BY 00Z WITH ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS REMAINING. SO WILL LEAN TOWARD A BRIEF CHANGE OVER ON THE
BACK SIDE WITH OVER TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO A DUSTING POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL DROP AS FRONT COMES THROUGH AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREE IN AN
HOUR. SO WILL WORD ZONES WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S
BEHIND FRONT. SC MO WILL SEE WARMEST TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER FWC NUMBERS WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

FORECAST FOR COORDINATION ONLY WILL BE SENT BY 245 AM VIA STLADMSGF.

SEVERE WX MOST LIKELY BY 6 AM IN FAR WESTERN ZONES... SO WILL NEED TO
SEE IF WATCH COMES OUT OR NOT BY THE TIME ZONES ARE ISSUED AT 4 AM.

CCF
SGF TB 066/021 040/020 050 2592-
JLN TB 068/021 043/024 054 2591-

TAGGART

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
500 AM CST THU FEB 11 1999

THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT IS VALID FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

THE MAIN AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS MORNING (6 AM TO 10 AM) WILL BE
WEST OF A LINE FROM STOCKTON TO MOUNT VERNON TO CASSVILLE. LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON (1 PM TO 6 PM)... THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM OSAGE BEACH TO MARSHFIELD TO BRANSON.

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GET ORGANIZED IN THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING... WITH A COLD FRONT PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.

AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... STRONG SOUTH WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES
CONTINUED TO PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AROUND SUNRISE... SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP... SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI DURING
THE MORNING... HOWEVER THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI UNTIL LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THE STORMS TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE JOPLIN AREA UNTIL 9
AM THIS MORNING... THEREFORE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL INTENSIFY WITH SOME BECOMING SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM OSAGE BEACH TO MARSHFIELD TO BRANSON.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED EXTENSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM LAST WEEK. THE AREAS MOST PRONE TO FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE COMMUNITIES EAST OF BRANSON AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
44. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS MAY APPROACH TWO TO THREE INCHES
BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM TODAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BRANSON TO SALEM.

BY 6 PM... THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE OZARKS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
AT THAT TIME AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ONLY2 A DUSTING AT BEST.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECAST AND POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS MORNING AND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

TAGGART

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>056-066>068-077>080-088>090-093>095-101>
103-111515-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
730 AM CST THU FEB 11 1999

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1 PM FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI WEST OF
A LINE FROM KIMBERLING CITY TO SPRINGFIELD TO VERSAILLES...

THIS INCLUDES THE TOWNS OF...

PITTSBURG         JOPLIN            SPRINGFIELD       FORT SCOTT
NEVADA            NEOSHO            LAMAR             BOLIVAR
OZARK             MONETT            COLUMBUS

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.

N ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER... HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED EXTENSIVE RAINFALL LAST WEEK. THE
AREAS MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING WILL BE COMMUNITIES EAST OF
BRANSON AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS
MAY APPROACH TWO TO THREE INCHES BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM TODAY...PROMPTING
THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD DEPLOY AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH.

RUNNELS