Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 PM CDT SUN APR 25 1999

QUICK AFD TODAY. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIFLUENCE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. LIFT OVER
925/850MB FRONT AND NICE MOISTURE FEED FROM TX/EASTERN OK HAS HELPED
PRODUCE RAIN AND ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NE OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI. HEAVY RAIN HAS PROMPTED A NUMBER FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS TODAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. ETA/AVN A BIT FASTER AND KEEPING THE LOW A BIT MORE OPEN VERSUS
THE NGM. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW AVN/ETA TIMING.

WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS SURFACE RELATIVELY WEAK
SFC LOW MOVES NE TOWARD THE AREA ON MONDAY. COLD FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AND SFC LOW AND
FAIRLY COLD 500MB LOW MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. SEVERITY OF STORMS DURING THE
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY
CLOUD COVER/SFC HEATING.

FLOODING THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THETA-E RIDGE STILL
PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO FEED MOISTURE INTO MO. GIVEN ALL THE RAIN WE HAVE HAD
TONIGHT...WOULD LIKE TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW FOR LATER PERIODS BUT WOULD
LIKE TO UNDERCUT NEXT TWO PERIODS GIVEN THAT THEY ARE ALREADY OUT OF
WHACK GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

PRACTICE ZONES WILL BE OUT SOON.

CCF:
SGF TE 050/060 052/072 053 26+77
JLN TE 050/062 054/072 054 26+76
VIH TE 049/060 051/068 052 26+87
UNO TE 050/060 052/070 053 26997

DSA

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-260000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT SUN APR 25 1999

THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT IS VALID FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST INTO MISSOURI ON MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING AS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR LIFTS UP AND OVER A SHALLOW LAYER OF COOL
AIR NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND A LARGE SECTION OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE A LARGE NUMBER
OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AREAS OF FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN AREAS FROM THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS SOUTH WEST
TO THE SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN AREAS.

AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...COLDER AIR ALOFT
COMBINED ALONG WITH WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH...WILL RESULT IN A
DESTABLIZING ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
LIMIT DESTABLIZATION SOMEWHAT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI
AND AS COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF
DAYTIME HEATING CAN OCCUR TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON MONDAY. THE
MAIN STORM THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE FLOODING. SPOTTERS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WEATHER RELATED
ACTIVATION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

DSA