Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 AM CDT SUN APR 25 1999

FCST CONCERNS: ONCE AGAIN THIS MRNG POPS AND TEMPS

SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED ACRS THE SRN GREAT LAKES PROVIDING AN EASTERLY
WND FLOW ACRS THE FA THIS MRNG. LATEST 88D DATA CONTS TO INDC AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACRS SERN KS AND SWRN MO.
PRECIP BEING AIDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT ACRS THE AREA...WHICH WAS
DEPICTED WELL BY THE LATEST RUC DATA.

TOUGH FORECAST IN ALL ASPECTS OVR THE NXT 48 HRS. ALL THE MODELS ARE
CONTG THEIR PREVIOUS TRENDS THIS MRNG IN TAKING THE SWRN U.S. UPR
LOW INTO THE PLAINS STATES DURG THE FCST PD. SEVERAL SHRT WVS ARE
FCST TO EJECT OUT AND LIFT NEWD ACRS THE AREA BEFORE MAIN SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT SUN NGT AND MON. BASED ON PREV RUNS...STILL FEEL THAT THE
ETA HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON UPR FEATURES...WITH THE AVN THE BEST WITH
OVERALL TIMING.

FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHRT WVS WL PASS ACRS THE AREA THIS MRNG...
WITH A SECOND FCST TO APCH FM THE SW THIS AFTN. MAIN UPR SYS FCST TO
MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE TNGT AND MON. UPR TROF TAKES ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT BY THAT TIME. IN THE SHORTER TERM...MAIN THREAT
OF TSTMS/HEAVY RAIN TODAY WL BE OVR OK AND TX WHERE BEST LOW LVL
FLOW AND SFC FNTL BNDRY WL BE THRU TODAY.

FNTL BNDRY FCST TO BEGIN LIFTING NWD LATER TODAY AND TNGT AS SFC LOW
DVLPS IN THE WRN PLAINS AND HEADS SLOLY EWD. AS WARM FNT APCHS
TNGT...THE CHCS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WL INCRS...ESPECIALLY ACRS
THE SWRN PART OF THE FA. LATEST DISCUSSIONS FM NCEP INDC THAT FLASH
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOW FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...DAY SHIFT WL LIKELY
HAVE TO CONSIDER A WATCH FOR AT LEAST THE SWRN PORTION OF THE FA
TNGT AND POSSIBLY INTO MON.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SVR WX MAY BE POSSIBLE ON MON AS TRAILING
CDFNT MOVES ACRS THE REGION. APPEARS THAT A SQUALL LINE WL DVLP ACRS
OK AND TX AND HEAD EWD. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR N THE WARM
FNT WL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA BY MON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDC LIS ARND
-5 AND CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AT SGF ON MON.

CLDS AND PRECIP WL AGAIN PLAY HAVOC WITH MAXES TODAY AND MON. ABT A
5 TO 7 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NGM AND AVN MOS TEMPS FOR ALL
PDS. NGM DID A LTL BETTER WITH MAXES ON SAT...AND WL PROBABLY LEAN
MORE TOWARD THEM FOR TEMPS.

STL...WORK ZNS WL BE SENT SHORTLY.

CCF (FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY):
SGF WT 064/057 072/055 074 09666
JLN WT 065/059 074/056 075 09876
UNO WT 065/057 073/057 074 09566
VIH ET 064/054 070/054 073 09466

RICKARD

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-260000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT SUN APR 25 1999

THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT IS VALID FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST INTO MISSOURI ON MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING AS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR LIFTS UP AND OVER A SHALLOW LAYER OF COOL
AIR NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND A LARGE SECTION OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE A LARGE NUMBER
OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AREAS OF FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN AREAS FROM THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS SOUTH WEST
TO THE SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN AREAS.

AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...COLDER AIR ALOFT
COMBINED ALONG WITH WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH...WILL RESULT IN A
DESTABLIZING ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
LIMIT DESTABLIZATION SOMEWHAT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI
AND AS COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF
DAYTIME HEATING CAN OCCUR TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON MONDAY. THE
MAIN STORM THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE FLOODING. SPOTTERS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WEATHER RELATED
ACTIVATION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

DSA