Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
240 PM CST FRI APR 2 1999

FRONT HAS FINALLY STOPPED MOVING AND THE NW 1/4 OF THE FA IS IN THE
COOL AIR.  SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND AN
APPARENT SWEET SPOT NEAR THE OKLAHOMA-LOGAN COUNTY LINE.  THE CAP
SEEMS BREAKABLE ESPECIALLY WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND/OR
FRONT SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.  ALL OF THE MODELS... ESPECIALLY THE ETA DEVELOP A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MIDNIGHT AND MOVES IT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF A SQUALL
LINE.  FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ALTHOUGH NOT STRONG SHEAR
THERE IS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AFTER THAT THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE SQUALL LINE ACTIVITY AND
WINDS/HAIL. AM SOMEWHAT ON THE FENCE ABOUT POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT AREAL COVERAGE.  THIS ROUND OF FORCING MOVES TO THE EAST WHILE
THE UPPER STORM REDEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.  MOISTURE
PROGS SUGGEST THAT AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED TOMORROW ALTHOUGH AM NOT
SURE THE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL GET COMPLETELY PUSHED AWAY.  SO WILL
LEAVE POPS IN FOR MAINLY MORNING ACTIVITY.

AFTER A BREAK SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... THE CHANCE OF RAIN
INCREASES AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM HEADS OUR
WAY.  ANOTHER BREAK TUESDAY THEN ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF STORMS
WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE MRF.

...SPEG.
FIRST ITERATION.  FIRST PERIOD POPS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LITTLE OR
NO ADVANCE WARNING.
OKC   60  73  51  73 /  40  30   0   0
HBR   55  70  47  74 /  20  10   0   0
SPS   60  76  51  76 /  30  20   0   0
GAG   41  65  42  70 /  20  10  10   0
PNC   59  71  50  72 /  40  30  10   0
DUA   65  72  49  74 /  40  30   0  10

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
349 PM CST FRI APR  2 1999

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT  /REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0250 PM    10 SSW PERRY              OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/02/99   LOGAN

0307 PM    PERRY                     OK   .75 INCH HAIL
04/02/99   NOBLE

DC

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
616 PM CST FRI APR  2 1999

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT  /REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0610 PM    1/2 MILE EAST OF MAYFIELD OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/02/99   BECKHAM

CW