Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 1999

CURRENT SFC ANAYLSIS SHOWS WEAKENING LOW IN NE SD ALONG A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST FROM THIS FEATURE
ACRS CNTRL MN. OUTFLOW FROM NOCTURNAL MCS OVR THE NORTH WAS SERVING
TO ENHANCE THE WARM FRONT. 12Z RAOB FROM MPX SHOWED 2200 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY BASED AT 800 MB...WHILE OAX SHOWED LITTLE CIN AT MAX
HEATING THIS AFTN. BASICALLY...APPEARS AIRMASS OVER SRN MN WILL
REQUIRE ONLY A LITTLE HEATING TO GET GOING. ATTM...APPEARS MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR INITIATION WILL BE IN THE FAR SW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND ACRS CNTRL MN NEAR ENHANCED SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG WARM
FRONT. ALTHOUGH SHEAR ISN'T GREAT...MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OFF THE
PBL...CAPES WILL BE HIGH SO SVR STORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE HAD HEAVY RAIN LATELY...AND WITH PWS RUNNING NR 1.5 INCHES
AND HIGH FREEZING LEVEL...WOULD EXPECT MORE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS AS
WELL. WILL INCLUDE HVY PCPN WORDING. FINALLY...WITH VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LINGERING...WILL TRY TO
REFINE TEMPS/WINDS IN UPDATE PACKAGE.

.MSP...NONE.
DAVIS

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-100600-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CHANGED HEADER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
740 AM CDT WED JUN 9 1999

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUT LOOKED CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS OUT LOOKED AREA INCLUDES
THE TWIN CITIES METROPOLITAN AREA AS WELL AS ST CLOUD...MANKATO...
REDWOOD FALLS...ALEXANDRIA...RED WING...EAU CLAIRE AND RICE LAKE.

EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
LATE TODAY THEN REACH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL BUT TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-100600-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1208 PM CDT WED JUN 9 1999

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALL OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES THE TWIN CITIES
METROPOLITAN AREA AS WELL AS ST CLOUD...MANKATO...REDWOOD FALLS...
ALEXANDRIA...RED WING...EAU CLAIRE AND RICE LAKE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS RAPIDLY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...MANY LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO LOCAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS.

TH6E SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST ONCE
THEY DEVELOP...AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
AREA BY LATE EVENING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

DAVIS