Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
845 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 1999

FORECAST CONCERN IS FOR MORE CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT. CONVECTION
OVER N CENTRAL IA CONTINUES SLOWLY TO EAST IN WEAK WIND FLOW ALOFT.
SAT PATTERN SUGGESTS POSSIBLE VORT OVER NE IA SUGGESTED BY MODELS.
ISOLATED CELL OVER SE SD LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE CONNECTED BY OUTFLOW
OR BOUNDARY ANALYZED ACROSS N IA THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH CELL OVER SE SD. SLIGHT CHANCE OF IA CONVECTION
PUSHING BACK INTO SE MN BUT LIKELY MISSING SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF
CWA. CELL IN SE SD COULD ALSO HOLD TOGETHER AND PUSH INTO SW MN.
WDL PROFILER WINDS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE ATTM FOR STRONG STORMS WITH
WEAK WINDS 700 MB-400 MB.

ATTENTION TURNS FARTHER WEST WITH MAIN FORCING. MAIN LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND NEB INTO ND WITH INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO ND. THIS PATTER
CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT ACCORDING TO 21Z RUC. MOST UNSTABLE 850 MB
LI'S OVER ND INTO N CENTRAL SD AS WELL AS 850-500 THICKNESS
DIFFLUENCE. THICKNESS PATTERN NOT REAL CONDUCIVE TO SVR WX IN MN
WITH N-S CONTOURS OVER MOST OF STATE. COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME PARTS
OF THE MCS SAGGING SE OVER WEST CENTRAL MN LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME
HEVAY RAIN AND THIS HINTED AT BY 18Z MESOETA BY OR AFTER 09Z.

BASE ON 850 MB LI FIELD..THERE IS ACTUALLY A SLIGHT ADVECTION OF
MORE STABLE AIR INTO EASTERN MN.

WILL ADJUST SOME TIMING OVER EASTERN MN AND POSSIBLY BACK OFF A BIT
ON POPS^. WEST PROBABLY OK.

.MSP...NONE.
RICHARDSON