Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
230 AM CST SAT JAN 2 1998

COMPLEX OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS GETTING ALIGNED AHEAD OF FRONT AS
SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF SERN TX INTO WRN LA EARLY THIS MORNING.  ETA
STILL PREFERRED MODEL ON TIMING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AS IT SEEMS
TO HANDLE SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS ERN TX THE BEST.  NGM TOO FAR S
WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW...AND SEEMS TO BE LAGGING A BIT ON FRONTAL
MOVEMENT (AGAIN).  BEST GUESS ATTM WOULD PLACE FRONT INTO SERN MS MID
TO LATE MORNING...TO NEAR MOB AROUND MIDDAY...AND ACROSS ERN FORECAST
ZONES BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

40KT 1-3 KFT WINDS ALREADY NOTED ON KMOB VAD WIND PROFILE AT 08Z.
EXPECT WINDS TO CONT INCREASING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS.  SHEAR PROFILES
OVER AREA NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE RIGHT NOW...BUT AS FRONT APPROACHES
EXPECT WINDS IN THE 2-6KFT LAYER TO BECOME MORE SWLY ENHANCING
HELICITIES BY MID MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  LOOKS LIKE
A BUSY DAYSHIFT ON HAND AS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAIN MOVES
ACROSS.

HEAVY RAINS SHOULD SHIFT EAST WITH FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THICKNESSES PLUMMETING THROUGH THE NIGHT ON THE HEELS OF
STRONG NWLY COLD ADVECTION.  ETA PUTS THE 534 1000-500 MB THICKNESS
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE TOMORROW.  EVEN THE FWC IS FORECASTING
A LOW OF 22 AT MOBILE BY 12Z MON.  NOT SURE IT WILL GET QUITE THAT
COLD...BUT LOW/MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH MID/UPPER 20S
ALONG THE COAST DEFINATELY POSSIBLE.  GROWERS SHOULD BE ALERTED EARLY
TODAY TO THIS THREAT SO THEY CAN TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AGAINST A
HARD/KILLING FREEZE DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...SLY WINDS START PICKING UP IN EARNEST TODAY
AS FRONT MOVES CLOSER...BECOMING WLY THEN NWLY THIS EVENING GUSTING
AROUND 30 KTS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW IN WAKE OF FRONT.
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT EARLY TONIGHT...10 FT TOMORROW WITH STRONG NLY
rOFFSHORE FLOW.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORYS REMAIN IN EFFECT.  EXPECT WINDS
TO BEGIN RELAXING MON INTO TUE AS HI PRES BUILDS IN FROM NW.

MOB 66/34/40/24 92--  PNS 68/38/40/28 84--
DTS 68/41/42/30 741-  GZH 64/33/39/22 82-- 05

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-031500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CST SAT JAN 02 1999

...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL
   GULF COAST TODAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY.  AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...A LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

DOWNBURST WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE
MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  SCATTERED STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE MAY BECOME SEVERE AS WELL.  A FEW OF THESE SCATTERED
STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALL RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD STAY IN TOUCH WITH THE LATEST WEATHER
DEVELOPMENTS TODAY.  REMAIN ALERT FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY MID
MORNING...THROUGH THE MOBILE AREA BY LATE MORNING...AND INTO
NORTHWEST FLORIDA BY MIDDAY.

THE LINE OF STRONG STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY MID AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION USHERING IN A MUCH
COLDER...STABLE AIRMASS.

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS AND EMA PERSONNEL ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
TODAY.

MSZ067-076-079-021630-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
958 AM CST SAT JAN 2 1999

THE TORNADO WATCH ISSUED EARLIER FOR WAYNE...GEORGE AND GREENE
COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED
SOME DAMAGE IN GEORGE AND STONE COUNTIES HAS MOVED EAST AND IS NOW
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.