Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
...CORRECTED FOR ENCODING...
...AMENDED FOR POPS DUE TO MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENTS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
310 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 1999

LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE SUBDUED OVER WEEKEND AS
ANTICYCLONE DOMINATES.  ETA STILL DRAWING EASTERLY WAVES AROUND
SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH...AND PREVIOUS INDICATED SHIFT EAST FOR TODAY
LOOKING NOW LIKE A CONTINUING GYRE....BUT AVN INSISTS IT WILL ERODE
AND MIGRATE EAST AS A WEAK RIDGE RUNS BETWEEN TWO QSTNRY TROUGHS
FROM NEAR MOB UP THROUGH OHIO. AVN ALSO HAS BEST INITIALIZATION WITH
THE BUOY REPORTS BEING UPWARD OF 15 TO 20 KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
AN OFFSHORE MCS.

MAIN CONCERN IS RETROGRESSING DRIFT OF THAT SAME MCS WHICH ROARED
THRU HERE LAST NIGHT TO THE SW AND STALLED OFFSHORE. LATER IT DID A
SLOW REVERSE AS OTHER TSRA DEVELOP TO THE NORTH NEAR PNS. MORE
WIDELY SCT TSRA DEVELOPING NORTH ATTM AND THUS WOULD THINK SLIGHT
CHANCE APPROPRIATE FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS AND CHANCE FOR COASTAL
ZONES. MESOSCALE OUTFOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND WEAK DYNAMICS MAKES
THIS AFTERNOON A WORRY FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

OTHERWISE...THE HEAT ARRESTS EVERYONE.  MUGGY THIS AFTERNOON  ACROSS
MUCH OF COASTAL ZONES WITH 2 PM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
MOST LOCATIONS. COASTAL TDS IN HIGH 70S. WITH HIGH THICK CLOUD COVER
OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL REGION...EXPECT TO ALLEVIATE DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS TODAY BUT THINK LIKELY TO BE WARMER NEXT DAY OR TWO.  INLAND
TEMPS TOMORROW AROUND HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...NEAR OR AT CENTURY
LEVELS AND COASTAL TEMPS MID 90S. EXPECT REPEAT MINS OF MID 70S TO
NEAR 80 TONIGHT WITH HIGH THICK CLOUD COVER PUTTING A LID ON ANY
OUTBOUND RADIATION. HEAT INDICES SHOULD RISE AGAIN EXPECTED TO MEET
OR EXCEED 120 OVER THE INLAND REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH AVN
MAX FOR MGM AND MEI AT 100 AND 99 RESPECTIVELY...TD OF 80 GIVES HI
OF 121. CONSIDERING THE HEALTH RISK TO OUR ELDERS AND SMALL KIDS...
KEEPING HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WEAKENING HIGH AS TROF OVER SE US DEEPENS.
WILL BE LOOKING AT A MORE TRADITIONAL DEEP SOUTH TROPICAL SKY BY MID
WEEK.

...CORRECTED...WITH AMENDED POPS
MOB BB 076/097/075/095 774-1
PNS BB 078/096/077/096 774-1
GZH BB 075/100/074/077 77321
DTS BB 078/096/077/096 774-1
61A BB 075/100/074/077 77321
2RO BB 075/098/072/097 77121

MOB=MOBILE REGIONAL
PNS=PENSACOLA REGIONAL
DTS=DESTIN FL
GZpH=EVERGREEN AL
61A=CPMDEN AL(WILCOX COUNTY)
2RO=WAYNESBORO MS(WAYNE COUNTY)