Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
200 PM CDT THU JUL 29 1999

THE HEAT IS ON OVER DEEP SOUTH. MID/UPPER RIDGE STILL TO REMAIN PUT
OVER SERN US AND A SURFACE TROF NOW DEVELOPS OVER PIEDMONT MORE
MARKEDLY THAN LAST CYCLE. SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE GMEX
MAINLY OFF TX AND LA. ETA MODEL SHOWS A SURFACE BUBBLE OVER THE MID
MS/AL STATE LINES IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPMENT OF APPARENT MCS
AT 18Z FORECAST. WOULD FIT IN WITH CONTINUING TREND OF DEEPENING
MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA UNDER ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW. HOWEVER THE CONVECTION HAS APPARENTLY LIT OFF CLOSER TO THE
MID AL/GA STATE LINES. POPS WILL GO UP BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUING THROUGH FRI. WILL GO FOR CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AS CONVECTION HAS STARTED UP THERE ALREADY.
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS FOR COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NEEDED TO
TWEAK FAN POPS UPWARD IN PLACES.

THE BIG WORRY THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAT INDEX. WILL
CONTINUE HILITE OF HEAT INDICES 115 TO 120 ACROSS ENTIRE FA EVEN
THOUGH MOST SOUTHERNERS TEND TO TAKE IT ALL IN STRIDE. DEWPOINT IS
84 AT THIS WRITING AND TEMP IS 91 SO IT IS 117 DEGREE HI ALREADY AT
NOON. MODEL MIN TEMP TRENDS STILL TENDING TO MID 70S SO WOULD NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...YET AGAIN APPROACHING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MOB BB 077/095/075/095 77242
PNS BB 078/096/076/097 77342
GZH BB 075/099/073/098 77412
DTS BB 078/096/076/097 77342
61A BB 075/099/073/098 77412
2RO BB 073/097/071/096 77412

MOB=MOBILE REGIONAL
PNS=PENSACOLA REGIONAL
DTS=DESTIN FL
GZH=EVERGREEN AL
61A=CAMDEN AL(WILCOX COUNTY)
2RO=WAYNESBORO MS(WAYNE COUNTY)