Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
251 AM CST SAT JAN 9 1999

COLD FRONT NEAR A MEI PIB LINE AT 0830Z AND SHOULD BE NEAR A MOB GZH
LINE AROUND SUNRISE. STORMS BEEN DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
INTO NEW AREA WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF TSTMS ALONG FRONT
CURRENTLY BUT SUSPECT THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG FRONT OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST WITH A SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT AND SWEEPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CWA. WET
BULB ZERO LESS THAN 10K BUT SHEAR IS LACKING SO WOULD EXPECT POSSIBLE
DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND WILL LIKELY
NEED TO CONTINUE SEVERE WORDING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
WHERE SOME HEATING MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING BEFORE FROPA. POSITIVE TILT
TO UPPER TROF SHOULD KEEP FRONT MOVING AND WOULD EXPECT CLEARING BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER SE MS AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SW ALABAMA...EARLY
EVENING PANHANDLE AND EAST. TODAYS HIGH WILL BE TRICKY AND COME EARLY
WITH FALLING TEMPS THIS MORNING THEN NEAR STEADY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
BOOST TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY AS FRONT SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF
FORECAST POINTS AT 12Z.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...SCA WITH NUMEROUS RW/TRW THIS MORNING THEN
WIND SHIFT TO NW AT 20 TO 30 KTS AFTER FROPA AND INCREASING SEAS.

MOB 65/29/48/27 +100  PNS 67/32/50/29 9100
DTS 69/34/51/32 8100  GZH 61/26/44/24 +100 11

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CST SAT JAN 09 1999

...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM BALDWIN COUNTY WEST
ACROSS THE  FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING...

A LINE OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM BALDWIN COUNTY TO THE WEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND A SMALL SECTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...MAINLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 65 THIS MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE
WARM HUMID AIR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM GULF SHORES TO DESTIN AND 20 MILES OR SO
INLAND.

RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WILL LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING
HOURS. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG NORTHWESTERLY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
40S...UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS.

RESIDENTS IN THE THREAT AREA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY TO TAKE
QUICK ACTION WHEN WARNINGS ARE ISSUED OR IF SEVERE WEATHER IS
REPORTED.