Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
251 AM CST SAT JAN 9 1999

COLD FRONT NEAR A MEI PIB LINE AT 0830Z AND SHOULD BE NEAR A MOB GZH
LINE AROUND SUNRISE. STORMS BEEN DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
INTO NEW AREA WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF TSTMS ALONG FRONT
CURRENTLY BUT SUSPECT THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG FRONT OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST WITH A SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT AND SWEEPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CWA. WET
BULB ZERO LESS THAN 10K BUT SHEAR IS LACKING SO WOULD EXPECT POSSIBLE
DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND WILL LIKELY
NEED TO CONTINUE SEVERE WORDING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
WHERE SOME HEATING MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING BEFORE FROPA. POSITIVE TILT
TO UPPER TROF SHOULD KEEP FRONT MOVING AND WOULD EXPECT CLEARING BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER SE MS AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SW ALABAMA...EARLY
EVENING PANHANDLE AND EAST. TODAYS HIGH WILL BE TRICKY AND COME EARLY
WITH FALLING TEMPS THIS MORNING THEN NEAR STEADY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
BOOST TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY AS FRONT SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF
FORECAST POINTS AT 12Z.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...SCA WITH NUMEROUS RW/TRW THIS MORNING THEN
WIND SHIFT TO NW AT 20 TO 30 KTS AFTER FROPA AND INCREASING SEAS.

MOB 65/29/48/27 +100  PNS 67/32/50/29 9100
DTS 69/34/51/32 8100  GZH 61/26/44/24 +100 11

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-091500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1010 PM CST FRI JAN 08 1999

...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

A LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVE INTO
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EAST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY...MOVING
EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST OUT AHEAD OF A SQUALL LINE AS IT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION AND USHERS IN A
MUCH COLDER STABLE AIR.

ALL RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THEIR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR LOCAL NEWS SOURCES FOR FURTHER UPDATES TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT.

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS AND EMA PERSONNEL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AREA MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.