Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
208 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 1999

AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS AFTN HEATING AND AN ACTIVE
NW FLOW ALOFT ONCE AGAIN PRODUCES A FEW WIDELY SCT TSTMS THIS
AFTN AND EVNG...MAINLY OVER THE NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THTA-E
RIDGING AND UPR LVL SUPPORT ARE MORE FAVORABLE. ISOLATED PULSE SVR
TSTMS ARE ONCE AGAIN A SMALL THREAT.  ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF AFTN HEATING.

UPR LVL RIDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AS MDLS DEEPEN THE
MAIN UPR LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS ON SAT AND DRIVE IT NEWD TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUN.  MAIN STORY IS DVLPMNT OF SFC LOW OFF
SRN FL BY LATE SUN AS WEAK UPR TROF OVR THE ERN GULF DEEPENS AND TRYS
TO UNDERCUT THE AFORMENTIONED RIDGE AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES WWD. THE AVN
& MRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS DVLPMNT AND PUSH THE SFC LOW INTO
THE ERN GULF BY MON.  SO FAR THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE MORE
BAROCLINIC IN NATURE WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING TROPICAL
DVLPG AT THIS TIME.  EITHER WAY...THE UPR LVL TROF MAY WEAKEN THE
RIDGING OVERHEAD AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC RIDGE SLIPS EAST AND A
DEEPER MOIST SE FLOW TRYS TO DVLP BY SUN AFTN.  A CONTD MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH AFTN HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE AND
UNCERTAINTY IN DVLPG LOWS OVER THE ERN GULF WILL ALL WARRANT THE
CONTD SLIGHT CHC AFTN-EVNG POPS THRU PERIOD.  RIDGING WILL RESULT IN
MSTLY SNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LWR 90S ON SAT WITH A FEW MORE CLDS
PSBLY HOLDING AFTN HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ON SUN.  LOWS WILL
PERSIST IN THE LWR 70S WITH DWPTS.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.

MOB 72/93/72/91 1212  PNS 73/92/73/90 1212
DTS 74/87/74/86 1212  GZH 70/94/70/92 1212 39