Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
222 PM CDT THU MAY 6 1999

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE TROF POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL CONUS
WITH SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF TROF.
FIRST ONE SLOWLY EXITING REGION WITH LINGERING STORMS OVER E
CENTRAL WARNING AREA. SOME OF THESE HAVE DROPPED VERY HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH REPORTS OF WATER OVER ROADS IN
COVINGTON COUNTY. NEXT DISTURBANCE...AS PER WATER VAPOR ANIMATIONS...
HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION DROPPING ESE ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF N TX/S OK. CONDITIONS OUT THE DOOR AND ACROSS EASTERN
FORECAST AREA ARE QUITE MUGGY AND TROPICAL AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH IS SLOWING ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT OVER CENTRAL MS. THE
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...INTERACTING
WITH STALLING FRONT MAKES FOR A CHANCE OF SEEING REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. BEST INSTABILITY/COOLING ALOFT WILL
RIDE ACROSS N MS/N AL WITH FORECAST AREA CATCHING THE SRN END.
ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE...SURFACE FRONT KEEPS ITS IDENTITY ALONG
THE COASTAL STATES NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WITH THIS IN MIND...COULD GET
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT LATTER PERIODS...ESPECIALLY DURING
AFTERNOONS WHEN AIRMASS WARMS AIDING DESTABILIZATION OF LOCAL
ENVIRONMENT. WITH DEWPOINTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS IN LOWER
70S WILL OPT TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...MUST TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
COOLING FROM ANY RAINFALL ACTIVITY OVER FORECAST SITES. WILL ALSO
NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...IN THOSE AREAS WHERE
WINDS LIGHTEN UP AND THERE ARE BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THROUGH
5 PM CDT AS TIDES ARE JUST OVER A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND WE
APPROACH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES.

MOB 66/85/64/86 3212  PNS 70/82/67/86 3212
DTS 71/81/67/81 3212  GZH 64/82/60/86 5212 10