Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
235 PM EDT WED MAY 12 1999

CURRENTLY...INCREASING MOISTURE IS ALLOWING BOTH SEA BREEZES TO
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AND PRODUCE HIGHER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOLAR HEATING WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW IS PUSHING STORMS ON THE WEST COAST BREEZE EASTWARD AT A GOOD
CLIP TOWARDS OUR FA.

TONIGHT...GOOD CHANCE POPS REQUIRED FOR EVENING AS RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE AND STEERING FLOW PUSHES ACTIVITY SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WELL AFTER SUNSET.
LEFTOVER MID/HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION SHOULD DOMINATE MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...EVEN WITH FAIRLY GOOD
COVERAGE OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS FA...FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM
EXCEPT FOR SOME AVIATION FOG IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS IN
THE NORTH AND INTERIOR. SOME STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.  SEASONABLE
TEMPS EXPECTED AND FWC/FAN GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD.

THU/FRI...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMES WELL DEFINED ACROSS FLORIDA
KEYS THROUGH FRI. SW TO W LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TIGHTEN UP AS
PRESSURES RISE A BIT TO THE S AND BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AND CAROLINAS AS A NEW SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
500MB TEMPS WARM TO ABOUT -11C INITIALLY AS HEIGHTS RISE...BUT LOOK
POISED TO FALL AGAIN BY H48 WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...ESP
NORTH. AIR MASS MAY DRY OUT SOME BY FRI...BUT WILL STILL BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED POPS EACH DAY...REGIME DOMINATED MORE BY
WEST COAST BREEZE MOVING EAST INTO MLB CWA LATE.

SAT/SUN/MON...00Z NOGAPS DISCARDED DUE TO INADEQUATE DEPICTION OF
UPPER TROUGH BY 12Z FRI. UKMET/ECMWF/MRF ALL SIMILAR AT 500MB WITH
AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF EAST OF GA/SC. MRF SHOWS A CONSOLIDATED SFC
LOW WHILE THE EURO MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. UKMET AND MRF ACTUALLY RETROGRADE THE SURFACE AND
UPPER SYSTEMS WSW-WARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND H144 ECMWF HINTS AT
DOING THE SAME. THIS COULD BODE FOR A VERY WET AND UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY VEER AND INCREASE (MAINLY OFFSHORE)
THROUGH PERIOD WITH MODERATELY STRONG SW-W FLOW DEVELOPING. NO
HILITES NEEDED AT THIS TIMFE. THANX FOR COORD MIA.

CCF NUMBERS...
DAB BB 065/090 065/090 065 60544
MCO BB 066/088 067/091 066 60543
MLB BB 066/089 067/089 066 60544

.MLB...NONE.

KELLY/CRISRALDI