Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
235 PM EDT WED MAY 12 1999

CURRENTLY...INCREASING MOISTURE IS ALLOWING BOTH SEA BREEZES TO
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AND PRODUCE HIGHER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOLAR HEATING WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW IS PUSHING STORMS ON THE WEST COAST BREEZE EASTWARD AT A GOOD
CLIP TOWARDS OUR FA.

TONIGHT...GOOD CHANCE POPS REQUIRED FOR EVENING AS RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE AND STEERING FLOW PUSHES ACTIVITY SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WELL AFTER SUNSET.
LEFTOVER MID/HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION SHOULD DOMINATE MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...EVEN WITH FAIRLY GOOD
COVERAGE OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS FA...FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM
EXCEPT FOR SOME AVIATION FOG IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS IN
THE NORTH AND INTERIOR. SOME STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.  SEASONABLE
TEMPS EXPECTED AND FWC/FAN GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD.

THU/FRI...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMES WELL DEFINED ACROSS FLORIDA
KEYS THROUGH FRI. SW TO W LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TIGHTEN UP AS
PRESSURES RISE A BIT TO THE S AND BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AND CAROLINAS AS A NEW SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
500MB TEMPS WARM TO ABOUT -11C INITIALLY AS HEIGHTS RISE...BUT LOOK
POISED TO FALL AGAIN BY H48 WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...ESP
NORTH. AIR MASS MAY DRY OUT SOME BY FRI...BUT WILL STILL BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED POPS EACH DAY...REGIME DOMINATED MORE BY
WEST COAST BREEZE MOVING EAST INTO MLB CWA LATE.

SAT/SUN/MON...00Z NOGAPS DISCARDED DUE TO INADEQUATE DEPICTION OF
UPPER TROUGH BY 12Z FRI. UKMET/ECMWF/MRF ALL SIMILAR AT 500MB WITH
AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF EAST OF GA/SC. MRF SHOWS A CONSOLIDATED SFC
LOW WHILE THE EURO MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. UKMET AND MRF ACTUALLY RETROGRADE THE SURFACE AND
UPPER SYSTEMS WSW-WARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND H144 ECMWF HINTS AT
DOING THE SAME. THIS COULD BODE FOR A VERY WET AND UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY VEER AND INCREASE (MAINLY OFFSHORE)
THROUGH PERIOD WITH MODERATELY STRONG SW-W FLOW DEVELOPING. NO
HILITES NEEDED AT THIS TIMFE. THANX FOR COORD MIA.

CCF NUMBERS...
DAB BB 065/090 065/090 065 60544
MCO BB 066/088 067/091 066 60543
MLB BB 066/089 067/089 066 60544

.MLB...NONE.

KELLY/CRISRALDI

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-122200-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1145 AM EDT WED MAY 12 1999

...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WILL LIFT
NORTH TODAY AND ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DEVELOPING WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW.  THEREFORE...STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST...BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...
WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND TO AROUND
INTERSTATE 95 BY MID AFTERNOON WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM.  ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO
LEESBURG.  IN ADDITION...STRONG SOLAR HEATING AND DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE EXISTS OVER MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES MAKING THAT AN AREA
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.  HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
MOVING INTO THAT AREA WHICH MAY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL AGAIN ALLOW HAIL TO OCCUR IN
THE STRONGER STORMS.  INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS AND MORE OF A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN A
GREATER DANGER FROM LIGHTNING...SINCE STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AWAY
FROM THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM.

MARINE...STORMS THAT FORM OVER LAND DURING THE DAY MAY AFFECT THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE EARLY EVENING.
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

KELLY

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-122200-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1145 AM EDT WED MAY 12 1999

...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WILL LIFT
NORTH TODAY AND ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DEVELOPING WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW.  THEREFORE...STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST...BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...
WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND TO AROUND
INTERSTATE 95 BY MID AFTERNOON WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM.  ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO
LEESBURG.  IN ADDITION...STRONG SOLAR HEATING AND DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE EXISTS OVER MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES MAKING THAT AN AREA
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.  HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
MOVING INTO THAT AREA WHICH MAY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL AGAIN ALLOW HAIL TO OCCUR IN
THE STRONGER STORMS.  INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS AND MORE OF A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN A
GREATER DANGER FROM LIGHTNING...SINCE STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AWAY
FROM THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM.

MARINE...STORMS THAT FORM OVER LAND DURING THE DAY MAY AFFECT THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE EARLY EVENING.
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

KELLY