Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 1999

CURRENTLY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS STARTING TO INFRINGE UPON
EC FL AND SRN HALF OF CWA IN A SVR TSTM WATCH THROUGH 8 PM. STORMS
WILL MOVE TOWARD E COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE AS SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. A FEW STORMS ALSO DEVELOPING OVER NRN
SECTIONS ALONG REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS FILTERING INTO THIS REGION AM THINKING COVERAGE OF STORMS
WILL STAY LOWER THERE.

TONIGHT...STORMS WILL LINGER INTO WELL EVE HOURS AS THEY MOVE TOWARD
E COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AS CLOUDS DECREASE AND WINDS
GO LIGHT...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

MON...SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES CUTOFF
MON NIGHT. COLD POOL OF AIR AT 500MB...STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINING
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZE FOCUSING WARRANT GOING A
LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SET UP LOOKS GOOD FOR
MAINLY HAIL AND WIND EVENTS.

TUE THROUGH FRI...AVN/MRF CUT OFF SHORT WAVE VICINITY OF PENINSULA
WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING -10/12 C OR LESS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP LAPSE RATES FAIRLY STEEP THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FL SHOULD KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND FROM THE EAST
TUE AND WED. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THU AND FRI AS INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE WED. GUIDANCE TEMPS OK. PREFER GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE ON POPS...MRF POPS LOOK MORE REALISTIC GIVEN WEATHER
PATTERN.

MARINE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH RIDGES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...FL AND INTO
GA/AL. AVN/MRF DEVELOPS AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG FL EAST COAST LATE
WED. WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS.

PRELIM NUMBERS

DAB BB 063/086 064/084 064 67322
MCO BB 065/089 063/087 064 67332
MLB BB 065/088 066/085 065 67333

.MLB...NONE.

GLITTO/WIMMER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-092000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1124 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 1999

...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS WITH A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...

AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS TO FORM AGAIN OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A FEW STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND ORLANDO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE MAIN THREATS WITH STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF SOME
STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH CAN CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTDOORS...BE PREPARED TO MOVE INDOORS AT THE
FIRST SIGN OF AN APPROACHING STORM. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD SEEK HARBOR
BEFORE A STORM IS OVERHEAD. SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS ARE REQUESTED
TO SELF ACTIVATE IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THEIR COUNTY.

GLITTO

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-100000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM FOR OSCEOLA...
OKEECHOBEE...BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER...ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES...

AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON... SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND TWO INCHES
MAY OCCUR IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH CAN CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PERSONS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO GO TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IMMEDIATELY IF
A STORM APPROACHES. SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF
ACTIVATE IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THEIR COUNTY.

GLITTO

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-100000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM FOR OSCEOLA...
OKEECHOBEE...BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER...ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES...

AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON... SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND TWO INCHES
MAY OCCUR IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH CAN CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PERSONS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO GO TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IMMEDIATELY IF
A STORM APPROACHES. SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF
ACTIVATE IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THEIR COUNTY.

GLITTO