Tornado Warning 22, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
145 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 1999

BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK UP.
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS TO FIGURE OUT THE JUST HOW QUICKLY THE
UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SWRN US...AND MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE OTHER LOW OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PROGRESS EWD...AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW TO OUR WEST TO BEGIN LIFTING OUT ON
SUNDAY. FOR TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS THE MAIN CONCERN. I
BELIEVE THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND
KICK OFF STORMS. WITH THE LOW BEGINNING TO LIFT...I EXPECT A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES TO EJECT OUT OF THE SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL PROBABLY
KEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE TONIGHT. TOMORROW THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT...BUT
I STILL EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PCPN DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER SFC AIR WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH...BUT WINDS
SHOULD QUICKLY SWITCH BACK AROUND TO A SLY OR SELY DIRECTION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN BECOME MORE SWLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY FOR
A BIT OF A WARMUP. UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
NEARLY ZONAL.

PRELIM TEMPS/POPS...
MAF 52/78/53/85 4200
CNM 52/81/52/87 3100
MRF 45/77/45/80 2100
P07 58/79/56/86 3100

DJK

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-020500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
859 AM CDT (759 AM MDT) SAT MAY 1 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF TEXAS...AND A MODERATE RISK ACROSS THR REST
OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING OVER MOST OF
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT AND
LOW CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING.

INITIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...THEN ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM
SOUTH OF MIDLAND TO SOUTH OF CARLSBAD.  STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OTHER PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS BEING AFFECTED LAST.

THE DRYLINE WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS WELL AND SHOULD
BE NEAR A CARLSBAD... TO BALMORHEA... TO MARATHON LINE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.  DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE AS WELL.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR EARLY ACTIVATION IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...POSSIBLY BY
NOON...WITH THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS MOST LIKELY NOT AFFECTED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FLOODING RAINS...AND A FEW LARGE
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

FOR THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSSJT.