Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
212 PM CDT (112 PM MDT) SUN MAY 9 1999

ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...LAPS DERIVED CAPES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS ALREADY IN THE
3500-4500 RANGE.  CURRENTLY DRYLINE LOCATED FROM NEAR A BOQUILLAS TO
KMRF TO KCVN LINE.  LI/S EAST OF THE DRYLINE RANGE FROM -6 OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES TO -10 OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. LOOKING AT
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING
REACHED AS A CU FIELD BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS
REGION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE IN PHASE WITH THE
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTHWAVE SWINGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS BY 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH HIGH CAPES AND
WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY GO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS.

AFTER THAT...MODELS TYPICALLY DON/T HANDLE THE DRYLINE VERY WELL...SO
WILL GO WITH INSTINCT AND SAY THAT DRYLINE WILL NOT MOVE THAT MUCH
OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW.  MODELS DON/T MOVE THE DRYLINE MUCH THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER THEY DO HAVE IT TOO FAR EAST.

MAF 063/093 060/090 3222
CNM 061/093 060/090 2111
MRF 055/088 053/086 2111
P07 063/090 063/090 2111

MARTIN