Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
135 PM CDT TUE APR 13 1999

DOING DISCUSSION A LITTLE EARLY TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
EWD OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM AREA THIS HOUR...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE ACROSS THE MAF CWA. DRYLINE IN ERN NM BEGINNING TO
PROGRESS EWD...WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH
SOMEWHAT SLOWLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CAP. SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
IF THE CAP MANAGES TO BREAK BEFORE THE DRYLINE ARRIVES...SHOULD SEE
SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DEVELOP. SFC BASED CAPES 2000-2500
J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AT THIS HOUR AND
INCREASING AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL SELY
FLO AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS RESULTING IN A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
HODOGRAPH. CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE MAF CWA THIS EVENING...
WITH EVERYTHING EVENTUALLY SWEEPING EWD AS THE PAC FRONT COMES
THROUGH AND A DRY SLOT ROTATES AROUND THE APPROACHING LOW. IT APPEARS
THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE PANHANDLE BY TOMORROW MORNING.
WILL ANTICIPATE SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TOMORROW...PER MODEL FORECASTS AND CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
INVOF LOW. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT NICELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW PROGRESSES EWD.

PRELIM NUMBERS
MAF 48/70/38/72 2-00
CNM 46/65/41/73 0000
MRF 40/61/34/64 0000
P07 51/73/46/75 3000

DJK